The Office Market of the Future
The Netherlands – Winter 2024
REPORT
Savills Research
Recent Threats and Current Trends
All the uncertainties in the office market have led to the question if, and how, offices can remain relevant in an everchanging landscape.
In this report, Savills will delve into the evolving role of the office in a future clouded by uncertainty. Specifically, we will examine the key trends that are anticipated to shape office-based employment and, consequently, the Dutch office market. We will achieve this by examining four trends that Savills identifies as primary determinants of the future of the Dutch office market: Economic & Demographic Demand, Hybrid Working & Working from Home, Technology, and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG). While the aforementioned trends are considered pivotal in shaping the trajectory of future of the office market, Savills maintains that the key to the successful development of the Dutch office market of the future lies at the close collaboration between businesses and (local) authorities. Uncertainty regarding economic policy is a large issue for the future of the Dutch office market. Clear, and stabile policy is an imperative is crucial for the development of the Dutch economy, its businesses, and the future of the Dutch office sector. The upcoming chapters delve deeper into these trends. Each chapter can be read in isolation, but one should keep in mind that the future of the Dutch office market is determined by the combination of these four trends.
Introduction
Since the beginning of this decade, the Dutch office market has consistently grappled with uncertainties. The COVID-19 pandemic, along with its subsequent decrease in occupier activity, record high inflation and the resulting increase in interest rates, which have subdued investor activity, and the technological revolution catalysed by AI, have collectively exerted pressure on the business models of many office-based companies, profoundly impacting the Dutch office market.
Dutch real estate transforms with global shifts. Demographics, digital disruption, and decarbonisation shape industry. Living, working, and markets evolve.
Dutch office-based employment grew by 34.2% between 2004 and 2024. The demand for office space has mirrored this growth.
34.2%
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Economy & Demography: The Netherlands: Strong Fundamentals for Office-based Employment
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CONTENTS
Market in Minutes Q3 2023
Market in Minutes Q4 2023
Market in Minutes Q2 2023
Market in Minutes Q1 2023
Summer Special 2023
Logistics Confidence Index
Market in Minutes Full Year 2023
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VOLG ONS
Savills Beds Special 2024
Dutch Life Sciences
Savills is positive about the future of the Dutch office market. The current downturn in the sector’s fortunes is the start of a period of rejuvenation rather than terminal decline.
Adaptability is the Key to Profitability
The landscape of Dutch office-based employment is set to undergo a significant transformation in the next decade, with early indicators of change emerging. Savills believes value growth will be contingent upon careful site selection and proactive asset management. An office that fails to adapt to the changing societal landscape risks becoming unprofitable in the long run.
Dutch office-based employment grew by 34.2% between 2004 and 2024. The demand for office space has mirrored this growth. The labour force’s size is expected to be stable up until 2040 influenced by immigration. Savills expects that office-based employment will also remain stable.
Stable Demand
The Netherlands has embraced hybrid ways of working, with over half of the workforce (52.0%) working from home. The shift in work patterns is reshaping the demand for office spaces, with median transaction sizes increasing by 21.2% in the period 2020 – 2023 compared to 2016 - 2019. The ease of commute is becoming a crucial factor in office demand, with offices near public transport hubs witnessing increased interest. On average, office rents for properties near railway stations were 34.2% higher than those outside of such areas. This trend is expected to persist.
Working From Home
Office dynamics are shifting with the growing digitalisation of the economy. 78.0% of the Dutch workforce requires internet access for work in 2022 and the growing adoption of AI technologies will further transform office use. Increasingly. buildings' value will be determined by their connectivity and ability to facilitate digital work. Future challenges for office owners will include access to the electricity grid and proximity to electric vehicles charging infrastructure.
Connectivity Evolution
Offices’ future viability will depend on their sensitivity to the requirements of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), driven by regulatory compliance and climate change adaptation. Climate risks threaten office resilience and occupant health, with vulnerabilities including heat stress, sea-level rise, and flooding. Savills' Climate Vulnerability Index identifies that the G4’s office markets belong to the top 15 most vulnerable office markets in the Netherlands.
ESG & Vulnerability
A decline in attractiveness in the Dutch Business Climate is putting pressure on economic activity and, in turn, office demand which will become more uncertain if business confidence is not restored. Crucially, the Dutch Government needs to acknowledge that the country’s future economic growth will continue to depend on (labour) immigration. Businesses should use their real estate to mitigate any potential wider broader societal impacts caused by their dependence on international labour.
Immigration Dependency
According to the Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), the exact number of office-based positions in the Netherlands remains unknown.
40%
A staggering 40-45% drop predicted by London's Capital Economics, the impact on commercial property values is profound.
Hybrid Working: Hybrid Workinging Redefining the Dutch Office Market
The Netherlands: Strong Fundamentals for Office-based Employment
Their 2017 research, one of the few reliable sources on Dutch office-based employment, suggests that approximately 24% to 25% of all employment occurs in offices. The Business Services and Health and Government sectors account for almost 70% of all office-based employment. Given the substantial growth of the Dutch economy, it is unsurprising that the number of office-based jobs has increased as well. Based on PBL's estimations, the number of office workers increased from 2.1 million at the start of 2004 to 2.8 million in 2024 (+34.2%).
The growth of Dutch office-based employment closely paralleled the expansion of the Dutch economy. Consequently, the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) recovery, which began gaining momentum towards the end of 2012, spurred demand for offices across the Netherlands. A clear correlation emerges when comparing office take-up with Statistics Netherlands' Business Cycle Tracer, an indicator that gauges the performance of thirteen macroeconomic indicators (excluding Gross Domestic Product) relative to their long-term trend. During the period January 2013 to January 2019, corresponding to post-GFC recovery, the 12-month moving average of Dutch office take-up soared by 61.9%. Conversely, the current downturn witnessed a 30.7% decline between June 2022 and December 2023. These trends underscore the strong relationship between the Dutch economy and the future health of the office sector.
HUMAN CAPITAL
Real population growth has already outperformed much of the forecasts made by Statistics Netherlands over the last two decades.
The Cornerstone of the Future of the Dutch Office Landscape
As a result, Statistics Netherlands readjusted their forecast in 2024 and now expects that the Dutch population will increase with an additional 6.9% to 19.2 million inhabitants between 2024 and 2040. The larger than expected population growth is caused by heightened (labour) migration. An ageing population has contributed to nationwide labour shortages, making the economy more dependent on foreign employees. Between 2012 and 2023, the number of companies operating in the Netherlands expanded by 61.2% with the labour force growing by 10.7%. In the same timeframe, the number of foreign (EU and non-EU) migrant workers increased by 102.8%. Secondly, attractiveness of the Dutch education system has attracted foreign students to the Netherlands. Between the academic year ’12-‘13 and ’22-‘23, the number of foreign (EU and non-EU) students entering the Netherlands increased from 53,720 to 119,600 (+122.6%).
The Dutch workforce is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2040 (+0.9%), largely boosted by labour migration. Similarly, as Dutch labour productivity (the added value per person employed) has been struggling to increase since 2000, the need for labour migration becomes evident. The Netherlands is lagging behind its European Union (EU) counterparts. Next to Germany (+14.4%) and Austria (+17.3%), Dutch labour productivity has only increased by 20.2% from its lowest point to its highest point in the period between 2000 and 2023. This is significantly lower than countries like Sweden (+58.2%) and Ireland (133.7%). A large part of the stagnation in labour productivity is caused by the structure of Dutch labour arrangements. Not any other country in the EU has as many part-time workers as the Netherlands, with latest numbers over 2022 suggesting 42.2% of the Dutch labour force works part-time. Comparable countries like France (16.5%) and Germany (28.0%) show significantly lower numbers. The (painful) truth is that much of the Dutch economic model relies on foreign employment. For the Dutch companies to remain competitive and, thus, for office-based employment to remain relevant, attracting foreign employees remains pivotal in ensuring the competitiveness of the Dutch economy.
Stable Workforce
ATTRACTING TALENT
How to Win the War on Talent?
Fortunately, the Netherlands has a large number of highly motivated foreign students which are eager to participate in the labour market.
In the academic year ’20-‘21, 26.1% of all foreign graduates had employment within one year of graduating. This is significantly higher than the preceding 10-year average of 18.5% and reflects labour market shortages. Furthermore, as a degree from a Dutch university remains in high demand. Recent forecasts expect that the foreign student population will grow significantly (38.5%) between ’22-‘23 and ’30-’31, while the domestic student population will decline by 10.5%.
ECONOMY & DEMOGRAPHY
GROWTH & DECLINE
During the same period, the office stock has only expanded by 2.8%. A temporary surge of 8.4% was observed between 2004 and 2015 before declining again, primarily in response to record-high vacancy rates.
Office Market Dynamics Mirror Economic Demand
The modest growth in office space, compared to the increase in office-based employment, is attributed to the speculative development of much of the Dutch office space between 2004 and 2015. Due to the large number of speculative developments, and a weaker business climate, office supply has exceeded demand. The market has recently begun to rebalance itself, with office supply declining by 53.3% between 2015 and 2024. Additionally, the evolution of office-based employment over the last two decades has reshaped its nature, contributing to the disparity between the growth in office space and office-based employment. The advances and integration of information and communication technology (ICT) into the Dutch economy has facilitated more flexible and part-time working arrangements. In 2004, only 24% of Dutch companies permitted digital remote work / Working from Home (WFH). By 2023, this figure had surged to 80%, leading to more flexible usage of office space.
Market consensus suggests that we are nearing the bottom of the current macroeconomic cycle, with the European Commission projecting 0.4% and 1.6% Dutch GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, respectively. However, peering further into the future remains challenging, as economic demand is sensitive to difficult to predict external influences, future Dutch government policy, and areas such as the competitiveness of the Netherlands’ labour force.
26.1%
of foreign graduates found employment within one year of graduating in the academic year ’20-‘21, significantly higher than the preceding 10-year average of 18.5%, reflecting labor market shortages.
Many of these foreign students are graduating in the ICT field. Therefore, integrating these students into the Dutch labour market might reduce labour market tightness and improve the competitiveness of the economy. On the other hand, some politicians have been questioning the durability of economic development which relies heavily on foreign employment. This has led to proposals to ban (or limit) foreign students and skilled migrants. Population growth caused by immigration, is contributing to additional stress on social services, healthcare, and the housing market. The State Commission on Demographic Development, for example, advised the Dutch Government to review immigration in the context of future economic development. It suggested future policy should only encourage immigration for sectors which show sustainable, long-term, development, have great public support, and are of added value to the Dutch economy. Limiting immigration indiscriminately, could result in a loss of future talent and skilled labour which, in turn, could harm the competitiveness and future development of innovation- and knowledge-intensive sectors. In the future, companies should actively be involved in mitigating the negative externalities caused by their (foreign) workforce. Real estate owners can, through active collaboration with businesses and (local) authorities, play a significant role in this. First, tenants and landlords could actively collaborate in creating fitting and out-of-the-box workplace concepts. The office of the future will not solely be used for employment, but can also be used in addressing societal issues. Offices can include (co-)living spaces for people struggling to find living space or be used in less crowded days to temporarily house knowledge institutes, cultural organisations, or community centres. Secondly, as (foreign) talent is increasingly looking to work in a comfortable and socially oriented environment, pairing aforementioned initiatives with enhancements in the general quality and multi-purpose character of an office building can result in more willingness of employees to work in an office environment. After all, for employees the office environment needs to have a significant added benefit compared to the home working environment.
Social Potential
EDGE Stadium, Amsterdam
EDGE Stadium, a state-of-the-art office building located near the Amsterdam Olympic Stadium, can be regarded as one of the most environmentally sustainable properties in Amsterdam. This 29,500 sq m LFA building, built in 2023, boasts a BREEAM “Excellent” and a WELL “Platinum” Certificate. Towards the end of 2023, EDGE Workspaces, a subsidiary of EDGE, and start-up UseSpace launched a partnership to maximise the potential of office buildings and utilise them more efficiently while creating social value for local inhabitants. By analysing the spatial needs of occupants and social actors, EDGE Workspaces and UseSpace transformed the Atrium of EDGE Stadium into a rehearsal space for the Symphony Orchestra De Philharmonie after office hours. Using platforms like UseSpace, temporarily vacant spaces can be utilised throughout the day for property owners to create more social value and interaction. In a future where occupancy rates are expected to remain low, creating social interaction through hidden vacancy might be one of the out-of-the-box workplace concepts needed to mitigate the negative externalities of a workforce.
THE OFFICE AFTER DARK, A PERFECT OPPORTUNTIY FOR SOCIAL INTERACTION
Caution is warranted regarding the development of the Dutch business climate and its potential impact on the demand for office-based employment.
In recent years, an increasing number of companies have expressed concerns about the Dutch Government's efforts to temper the business climate in lieu of additional tax benefits. Various proposals are being made to dismantle or drastically alter existing tax regimes, including tax benefits for Research & Development (R&D) expenses. Companies like ASML have voiced their concerns, stating that the Netherlands is losing its competitive edge. This has prompted some companies to delay investments or relocate from the Netherlands entirely. Political instability, in particular, has made large companies hesitant to invest in the Netherlands. Notable examples include Shell and Unilever, choosing to leave the Netherlands because of uncertainties over tax regime and the negative perception of large multinationals by some Dutch politicians. Furthermore, the Dutch Government’s indecisiveness regarding housing shortages, healthcare, international education, and grid capacity has further exacerbated the negative pressure on the Dutch business climate. Similarly, instability in the transfer tax regime has caused real estate investors to shy away from the Netherlands. Since 2020, the transfer tax has gradually increased from 6% in 2020 to 10.4% in 2024, making it one of the highest transfer taxes in Europe. Recognising that the 10.4% rate has compromised the Dutch real estate investment climate, the Dutch Government is expected to reassess and reduce the transfer tax for commercial properties towards the end of 2024. While lowering the transfer tax is a positive step, Savills urges the Dutch Government to maintain stability in its policy regarding the Dutch investment and business climate. Savills believes that long-term stability is crucial for the development of the Dutch economy and, consequently, the future of the Dutch office sector. Without stability in the business climate, politics, and demographic development, the Dutch office sector is likely to lose its competitive edge.
OUTLOOK
The Consequences of a Deteriorating Business Climate for the Future of Dutch Offices
Images
Eva Bloem
Dutch Office Growth
Technology: Connectivity: Crucial to the Office of the Future
savills beds special
PBSA
The growing number of hybrid workers has resulted in changing space requirements for occupiers, as offices have to increasingly compete with the home environment. In general, employees tend to visit the office for collaborative working and meetings, while focused work is also still preferred to take place at the office.
As the office is being used for a more diverse range of tasks, occupiers tend to lease additional space to ensure a comfortable office environment which supports all types of office-based tasks. By analysing office lettings with an area below 10,000 sq m in the period 2013 – 2023, it is shown that the median transaction size in the period 2020 – 2023 was on average 21.2% larger than the period 2016 – 2019. Increasing from 310 sq m in 2016 – 2019 to 376 sq m in 2020 – 2023.
Hybrid Work, Requires More Not Less Space
TRANSPORT REQUIREMENTS
As working in an office becomes more of an employee's choice rather than a necessity, offices that are easily accessible are expected to be in high demand. After all, employees prefer convenient commutes to work.
Similarly, employers are expected to reconsider offering lease vehicles to employees, foreseeing potential cost escalations due to diminishing tax benefits. In particular, offices located near public transport hubs are anticipated to attract increased occupier interest. This trend is further propelled by the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which will require companies to report on sustainability-related matters and which will prompt occupiers to lease office spaces easily accessible via transportation methods emitting close to zero Carbon Dioxide. Currently, 31.3% of the Dutch office stock is situated within a 1,000-metre walking distance of a medium- to large-sized railway station. Despite a 5.2% decrease in the overall size of Dutch office stock from 2015 to 2024, attributed to the withdrawal and transformation of outdated office spaces, the office stock in areas surrounding railway stations has seen growth, rising from 14.6 million square metres in 2015 to 15.0 million square metres in 2024 (+2.4%). Part of this growth is caused by Government planning policy, which prefers densification over expansion. While the increase may appear modest, it significantly enhances the appeal of Dutch offices located near railway stations. Indeed, despite this expansion, vacancy rates declined from 12.8% to 7.4% by 2024, indicating strong occupier demand.
The Netherlands has embraced Working from Home (WFH) and hybrid ways of working. More than half (52.0%) of the workforce works either often or sometimes from home, with an increasing number of people working from home less than half of their usual working hours.
Hybrid Working Redefining the Dutch Office Market
Similarly, the number of people working full-time from home has decreased from 1.9 million in 2021 to 1.3 million in 2023 (-31.6%). Working from Home is especially embedded in the information and communication Technology (ICT) sector and creative sectors, where respectively 91.5% and 86.8% of the workforce works from home at least once a week. In Europe, the Netherlands tops the list for working from home. In 2022 52.9% of the working force worked from home at least once a week. This is significantly more than the EU-average (22.4%), Germany (24.2%), and France (33.8%). Whereas many countries have only embraced hybrid working after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dutch workforce has already been working from home for a longer period of time. These statistics underscore the changing usage of Dutch offices, especially when putting them in perspective to other European offices markets. The embeddedness of hybrid working in the Dutch labour market means that hybrid working is definitely here to stay.
HYBRID WORKING
SPACE REQUIREMENTS
Occupiers are hesitant about downsizing, reflected in lower take-up compared to pre-COVID-19. Savills does not expect much downsizing will occur in the future. Currently, employees tend to be in the office mostly on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Offices in the future, thus, have to find the perfect balance in supporting occupancy on peak-days, while also allowing for flexible uses. The “office garden”, which has dominated much of the Dutch office landscape pre-COVID-19 is expected to be on its way out, with offices being designed in order to accommodate in-person employments as well as focused work, resulting in additional space requirements. Space requirements have to be put in respect to its sector. Sectors which have a high embeddedness of WFH, are expected to be able to downsize slightly in the future. These sectors include Public- and Legal (68.3%), Economic and Administrative (73.9%) and Creative (86.8%) sectors.
The Ease of Commute Will Dictate Office Demand
The attractiveness of office buildings near railway stations is reflected in rental growth. On average, when accounting for structural factors like construction year and energy performance certificates, rental prices within a 1000-metre walking distance of a medium- to large-sized railway station experienced a notable 13.3% increase between 2018 and 2023. In contrast, office rents outside of these areas saw a more moderate increase, averaging 5.8% over the same period. Additionally, analysis by Savills indicates that, on average, office rents in 2023 for properties near railway stations were 34.2% higher than those outside of such areas within the same municipality. However, this discrepancy diminishes in the largest five Dutch cities (G5), where the margin narrows to 13.2%. This suggests a clearer polarisation within the Dutch office markets beyond the G5 cities.
A Building With a Message
Triodos Bank, De Reehorst, Zeist
Triodos Bank, recognised as one of the most sustainable banks in the world, developed a new headquarters in 2019. This 12,985 sq m LFA building was designed with a singular purpose: to convey the message that nature, culture, and the economy can - and should - be in balance. De Reehorst can be considered one of the most sustainable properties in the Netherlands, boasting a BREEAM “Outstanding” Certificate. De Reehorst has been developed based on the principles of the circular economy and biomimicry, resulting in a property that blends seamlessly with its surroundings. It serves as an exemplary model of how a property can align with the ethos of its occupier's business. Furthermore, its close proximity to the Driebergen-Zeist railway station encourages the use of public transport, while offering 120 charging points for electric vehicles for those who cannot utilize public transport. De Reehorst exemplifies a future-proof office; it promotes sustainability, encourages public transport use, and aligns closely with the business needs of its occupant."
Using Capital to Generate Positive Impact
Working From Home (WFH) is here to stay, especially in the Netherlands where hybrid ways of working have been a widespread even pre-COVID-19 pandemic.
The future shape of the Dutch office market won't be solely defined by downsizing but rather by the changing requirements of occupiers and more adaptable office stock. Savills believes that single company will work completely remote in the future. Likewise, companies will not work solely from the office. Offices are, thus, expected to remain relevant in a time where hybrid forms of working are mixed with office-based employment. More concretely, offices should be able to support this new way of working. This means that companies will increasingly view offices, and their characteristics, as a mean to support their business rather than a necessity. Housing decisions are, therefore, expected to be increasingly made based on the way in which an office building can support the business. Furthermore, the ease of commuting is expected to play an increasingly pivotal role in housing decisions. Savills anticipates greater demand for offices near railway stations. Early signs of this shift are evident, with rents for properties in close proximity to railway stations substantially surpassing those outside of such zones. Developers are anticipating this trend, with a projected pipeline of 1,128,488 square metres of office space near railway stations between 2024 and 2030. However, with demand poised to outstrip supply, Savills predicts further rental growth.
No Business Will Be Fully Remote, but No Business Will Be Fully in the Office
Ossip
ESG: Managing Climate Risk: Strategies for Sustainable Dutch Offices
Rapid progression in technological development is likely to transform many of the office-based businesses that form the backbone of the Dutch economy.
Connectivity: Crucial to the Office of the Future
The digitalisation of the Dutch economy is not a new phenomenon. It has been influencing the evolution of most industries over the last 25 years. For instance, in 2010, only 58.0% of the working population required an internet connection for their work. By 2022, this percentage had risen to 78.0%, as reported by the European Commission (2024). Alongside Norway (89.2%), Sweden (86.8%), Finland (85.0%), and Denmark (79.6%), the Netherlands boasts one of the highest shares of employment requiring an internet connection within the European Union (EU).
The combination of regulatory uncertainty and a challenging macro-economic environment is a considerable contrast to 5 years ago, when residential investment volumes peaked. The Dutch Government’s market-led approach after 2010, was typified by its yearly publication about the Dutch residential sector the ‘state of the housing market’.
In contrast, the annual report is now called the ‘state of public housing’ and the role of ‘minister of public housing’ has been reinstated. It shows a clear intention for a greater role for government in the Dutch housing system. It effectively ends the liberal market approach, as the next Cabinet, which is currently in formation talks, is not expected to return to a market-led approach given rising housing shortages. In addition, ECB policy rates are projected to remain at their historically high level until at least the second half of 2024. Consequently, finding new private rental sector investment opportunities will remain difficult. However, current developments can also be seen in the context of Dutch housing history. Government policies had not been as liberal as in the period 2010 – 2022 and interest rates never as low as between 2012-2022, while also being accompanied by elevated housing demand. Putting this in perspective, this market excesses were bound to normalise, and perhaps previous market circumstances have been historically good instead of the current historically bad. Despite a tougher investment environment than a couple of years ago, current market circumstances still offer opportunities for long-term oriented investors, especially from an impact perspective. Politicians have expressed a wish for a larger role for housing corporations in the middle rental segment. Nonetheless, housing corporations face with their own constraints in terms of personnel as well as liquidity. For example, on 1 January 2023 the ‘verhuurdersheffing’ was abolished. This will structurally reduce the burden on housing corporations by approximately 1.7 billion € per year and creates space to invest in affordable housing. But another agreement has been made about phasing out housing corporations’ housing stock with energy labels below D in 2028. As this covers 25 percent of the current stock, much of this newly freed up capital will have to be used for improving the sustainability of these properties. Therefore, the growth of Dutch rental housing and potentially within the mid-rent segment, couldlargely still likely be dependent on investors, despite a more regulated market. This process is referred to ‘regulated marketisation’ in academic literature , where a regulated market is still driven by market parties operating within the bounds of increased regulation.
Focus on ESG as a Lifeline for Investors’ Legitimacy?
“Although we’ve witnessed a drop in investor activity across all sectors because of the unprecedented increase in the cost of capital – as euro rates are up +/-450bps since July 2022. The sharp decline in Dutch private rental sector investment signals more than a temporary market adjustment. Regulatory uncertainties, higher interest rates, and shifting investor strategies are shaping a new investment landscape. This isn't just a pricing equilibrium; it's a re-set reflecting structural changes, particularly in regulations and the government's role in the housing system. Navigating these shifts will be crucial for real estate investment strategies in the evolving Dutch market."
Robert Ciggaar
The digitalisation of the Dutch economy has been a gradual process, with some early adopters implementing disruptive technologies earlier than other businesses. Now, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) gaining momentum, an increasing number of Dutch companies are integrating these technologies to enhance productivity and maintain competitiveness.
DIGITALISATION
Connectivity’s Role in Business Relevance
For example, Deloitte has announced that AI will support all their audits in the Netherlands starting from 2025, promising time savings and higher productivity. In 2022, approximately 16% of all Dutch companies utilised AI, up from 12% in 2019. Larger companies (with over 500 employees) are leading the way as early adopters. In 2022, nearly 51% of these companies employed AI technologies, marking an increase from 45% in 2019. As the nature of office-based employment is expected to change under the influence of AI and other disruptive technologies, the way in which office buildings are valued and utilised is expected to change substantially over the coming years. For investors and occupiers, the mantra “Location, Location, Location” is evolving in a fast-changing world. Proximity to sought after amenities, alone, will no longer guarantee high occupancy rates, future value, and returns on investment. Instead, Savills expects that future office buildings will be valued according to how enable businesses to thrive through data connectivity, as well as their location.
Property owners can use technologies to provide healthy and sustainable interiors superior to the home environment. Usage of the Internet of Things (IoT) would enable individual components of a building to communicate with each other to provide for an optimal working environment. Smart sensors in office desks can count occupancy rates, and communicate this with other components of the building to adjust light, temperature, and internet connectivity to save electricity and increase the comfort of occupiers. The office infrastructure in the future will have to support this technology and be capable of handling the terabytes of data used by businesses. Being online is, therefore, an essential feature of the office of the future. Internet connectivity, facilitated by technologies such as optic fibre, is indispensable. In 2023, 14.2% of all Dutch companies boasted a very fast internet connection with a download speed of at least 1 Gb/s, slightly surpassing the EU average of 12.8%. Moreover, it's evident that larger companies (over 250 employees) tend to have superior internet connectivity, with 31.3% enjoying a connection with a download speed of at least 1 Gb/s. Unlike countries such as Spain and Portugal, where fast internet connectivity is more prevalent, the Netherlands has an opportunity to gain advantages by investing in the latest internet connectivity technologies and integrating them into office buildings that accommodate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). This investment is crucial to safeguarding the country’s competitive edge and maintaining its business appeal.
Sensors, Sensors, and Sensors
EDGE West, Amsterdam
EDGE West, a redevelopment by EDGE, is a 54,416 sq m LFA property delivered in 2021 in the Amsterdam Sloterdijk area. Similar to many other developments by EDGE, EDGE West strives to achieve the highest levels of health- and well-being. The property has a BREEAM “Outstanding” and WELL Platinum Certificate. The design of the redevelopment has been done in collaboration with DWA, which has developed an intelligent and dynamic model of the building which has been used to make data-driven decisions on the design of the property. The digital infrastructure of the buildings is fully future proof, running on EDGE’s technology platform which blends Artificial Intelligence and advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) to enable efficiency throughout the property. EDGE West is a perfect example of a property which has digital infrastructure that supports the business needs of its occupiers.
DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY FOR COMFORTABLE USE
Challenges do, however, remain when it comes to safeguarding the integration of technological changes in the office of the future. Most notably, the Netherlands is increasingly dealing with congestion of the electricity grid.
An increasing number of companies has to be placed on waiting lists to receive a connection to the electricity grid, with the latest estimates suggesting that approximately 9,400 companies are waiting for a connection. For the services sector, which is largely involved in office-based employment, the narrative seems a bit more positive. The services sector has managed to cut its electricity consumption from 33.25 billion kWh in 2012 to 29.28 billion kWh in 2022 (-11.9%). This decrease is largely attributable to energy-saving measures and hybrid ways of working. However, as the Dutch automotive fleet is slowly going electric, problems are expected to appear in charging infrastructure of office buildings. ElaadNL, a knowledge institute for electric mobility, estimates that there will be approximately 10 million electric vehicles in the Netherlands by 2050, with a growth of electric cars which largely outpaces the growth of charging infrastructure. As a result, ensuring adequate charging infrastructure becomes imperative for future office buildings. Savills believes that occupiers are expected to prioritise leasing office spaces equipped with reliable charging facilities, while investors must carefully assess tenants' evolving energy requirements and anticipate the growing demand for charging infrastructure. Savills believes data will be central to successful property ownership. Occupiers, developers, and investors will need to increasingly embrace the disruption from technological change. This means that properties should be able to support changing business needs, and actively be involved in data collection, analysis, and storage. The physical infrastructure of the office of the future should, thus, be able to support the digital infrastructure of its occupiers. Investors should, therefore, actively embrace technological change and implement changes according to the needs of the businesses which they desire to attract. If this does not happen, office buildings are at risk of being overtaken by their (more) technological capable counterparts.
Data Will Power the Office Business of the Future
Ernst van Raaphorst
CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MINISING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
Connectivity to the digital world
Connectivity to the physical places
Connectivity with the digital building
The effect of Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) regulations, directives and reporting requirements will have a profound influence on the development of the Dutch office market.
The Netherlands’ susceptibility to the effects of climate change will lead occupiers and investors to increasingly desire properties better adapted to withstand these risks. One should realise that ESG will increasingly be concerned with the S (Social) aspect. Now that the E (Environment) aspect of ESG seems to be fairly crystallised and regulated, office buildings of the future which are able to mitigate their negative social influence are expected to receive increased occupier- and investor interest. Nevertheless, traditional E indicators are expected to remain important, with most EU-regulations focusing on mitigating the Environmental aspects of the Dutch office market. The future viability of the Dutch office sector largely depends on how the sector is able to cope with the effects of climate change. Analysis by Savills has shown that a substantial part of the Dutch office market will be susceptible to the effects of climate change in 2050, causing significant vulnerability. These vulnerabilities highlight the need for Dutch offices to critically analyse their risk and implement adaptive measures accordingly. For instance, many office buildings have vital infrastructure located on the lower floors and / or basement floors, which are extremely susceptible to floods. Rethinking lay-outs, and acknowledging the vulnerability of one’s office is necessary in order to adapt to changing climates.
Compliance and Adaptation Will Direct the Dutch Office Market
Outlook & Conclusion: The Dutch Office: Dead, or Reincarnated?
Managing Climate Risk: Strategies for Sustainable Dutch Offices
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) requirements have had a significant impact on the Dutch office market.
Environmental, Social, and Governance
Firstly, the increased occupier- and investor interest in ESG in the Dutch office market is caused by their obligation to comply with Government regulations and reporting directives. Secondly, as the Netherlands is susceptible to the effects of climate change, occupiers- and investors are increasingly looking at properties that are able to adapt to its effects. Most notably, extreme weather including heavy rainfall, storms, and draughts, higher temperatures in urban environments, and the increased risk of river- and sea floods, are expected to drastically influence urban environments between now and 2050.
The European Commission’s Green Deal’s aim is to have a zero-emission building stock by 2050 and current and future regulations will steer towards this goal. Since sustainability is such a broad topic, legislation is extensive. Legislation ranges from energy efficiency to working conditions. This can have conflicting consequences for office investors.
There are four steps which can help to create more certainty regarding ESG-legislation for the office market.
REGULATIONS & REPORTING DIRECTIVES
ESG Legislation, Regulating the Role of Offices
The first step is to create transparency by enhancing data availability. Reporting directives such as the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) are pushing companies to publish more on their motives and performance. The purpose is to make ‘greenwashing’ more difficult, as companies will publish public reports. The current lack of data availability is considered in the implementation of new legislation. As many companies have a year that can be used as a trial to gather all necessary data. The second step is to define what is sustainable and what is not. The EU Taxonomy can be seen as a prime example of legislation that has this goal. It is often referred to as a “shopping list for green activities”. This enables investors to strive for sustainable results and to go further than merely complying. The EU Taxonomy also defines minimum safeguards. When one fails to comply with any of these, the activity can no longer be defined as sustainable. With regards to the Dutch office stock, a draw towards certificates such as BREEAM-In-Use is observed. These types of certificate schemes go beyond legislative requirements, buildings with a BREEAM label are therefore often referred to as more sustainable than non-labelled properties. The third step is to finance sustainable measures, through a mix of fiscal incentives and private finance. Fiscal incentives in the Netherlands include the Environmental Investment Deduction (MIA) and Arbitrary Depreciation of Environmental Investments (Vamil). These subsidies are tax schemes benefitting investors. MIA permits, deductions of up to 45% of the investment costs for an environmentally friendly investment, such as green roofs and solar panels, in addition to regular investment tax deductions. With Vamil allows the write-off of 75% of investment costs. Furthermore, multiple banks offer lower interest rates for the (re)financing of sustainable office buildings. Finally, the last step is to enforce minimum standards. On a European level this legislation is scarce. The fourth version of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD IV) is a good example. As this introduces minimum energy performance standards for non-residential buildings, an enhanced standard for new buildings and a gradual phase-out of stand-alone boilers powered by fossil fuels. The expectation is that the amount of legislation that sets these standards will grow from 2030 on. On Dutch national level the best example is the EPC C obligation for offices. This obligation will be expanded to other asset classes from 2030 on. From 2026 stand-alone boilers will have to be hybrid. The Netherlands thus takes a firmer position compared to EU legislation regarding these topics, this is no surprise as the Dutch market is much further ahead compared to other European nations.
For many environmental topics legislative processes are somewhere between the third and fourth steps. The process is less advanced in defining how office buildings should comply with social topics. Therefore, in several instances the EU has attempted to combine one with the other. For example, the Emissions Trading System 2 auctions carbon allowances with a share of the revenues flowing into a Social Climate Fund, to help, among others, vulnerable households. The system is designed to reduce emissions by 42% in 2030 (compared to 2005 levels). In line with these developments, it is expected that the upcoming years the focus regarding ESG measures in the Dutch office market will shift towards the S. As navigating the legislative office landscape of the future becomes increasingly difficult due to a myriad of regulations, Savills has visualised historic and future ESG-regulations for the Dutch office sector. It is strongly believed that knowing these regulations, and assessing whether a property complies with upcoming regulations, can ensure future profitability.
Clicking the image below will start the download of a full-size version of the ESG-timeline
Figure
Environmental, Social and Governance regulations for the Dutch office market. Now and in the future.
Source
Savills Netherlands, 2024.
Adapting To The Physical Risks From Climate Change
Damages, or disruptions, due to extreme weather events can result in significant losses for occupiers and investors. Therefore, ensuring the resilience of office buildings to climate change is essential to safeguard a healthy climate for occupiers.
CLIMATE RISKS
The Dutch office stock is particularly vulnerable to rising sea-levels and extreme weather conditions due to the Netherlands’ low-lying geography. Furthermore, with a median construction year of 1988, a significant part of the Dutch office stock has been built in a period where adaptation to the consequences of climate change was not a high priority. Recent climate scenarios by the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) show that the Netherlands is expected to experience a significant change in temperature by 2050. In the most pessimistic scenario, average temperatures in summer months will increase from 18.4°C in 2023 to 19.5°C in 2050. Summers will be longer and hotter, while winters are expected to experience more (extreme) rainfall. Furthermore, due to melting ice caps around the globe, the Netherlands is expected to experience a rise in average yearly sea level by 12 cm between 2022 and 2050. Combining climate scenarios from the KNMI and data from the Climate Effects Atlas (2024), reveals that much of the Dutch office stock will be vulnerable to the effects of climate change by 2050. Around 21.6% of the total Dutch office stock in terms of Lettable Floor Area (LFA) currently lacks proximity to a cool space within 300 m. Research by the Hogeschool van Amsterdam (HvA) underscores the importance of access to cool spaces, especially on hot sunny days when heat tends to linger longer in urban environments - a phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. As the average temperature increases by 2050, the UHI effect will significantly influence the internal climate of office buildings, making cooling properties more challenging when heat remains trapped in the urban environment. Unsurprisingly, the office stock in the largest five cities (G5), is most exposed to the UHI effect, with Amsterdam particularly vulnerable. Around 80.6% of Amsterdam’s office stock will experience the UHI effect, when the air temperature in June, July, or August will be on average more than 1.5°C higher than its outside of the urban areas. By way of comparison, the Dutch average of 46.3%. The future rentability of an office building will, increasingly be influenced by the way in which it is able to ensure a healthy and comfortable indoor climate compared to its surroundings. Offices near cool places will be in demand. Most of the Dutch office stock is in densely urbanised areas, property owners can also help lower the UHI effect, by actively encouraging the development of cool, and green, spaces in and around a property, and by making use of bio-based materials such as green facades or green roofs.
Extreme rainfall and rising sea levels will also have a large impact on the office market in 2050. The chance at which intense rainfall (140 mm in two hours) can currently occur is once every 1,000 years according to the KNMI. Now that the climate is changing, the probability is expected to increase. Substantial damage can be caused by intense rainfall, especially when infiltration systems cannot cope. 49.1% of the Dutch office stock is at risk of severe flooding due to intense rainfall, at a water depth of more than 30 cm after intense rainfall based on current infiltration and sewage systems. Similarly, 59.7% of the Dutch office stock will be at risk of experiencing floods by 2050. A further 1,201,638 sq m LFA of office space is at a medium to high risk (less than 1:300) of flooding at least once a year. These risks highlight the need for Dutch offices to critically analyse physical climate risk and implement appropriate adaptive measures. For instance, many office buildings have vital infrastructure located on the lower floors and / or basement floors, which are susceptible to flooding. The changing climate and the risks associated with it, requires office owners to rethink lay-outs, and identify vulnerabilities in their office portfolios.
By including the previously mentioned risk and putting them in respective to the size of each local office market, Savills has designed the Savills Climate Vulnerability Index. This Vulnerability Index helps in assessing Climate Risks in a local market, relative to risks elsewhere throughout the Netherlands. The four largest office markets (Amsterdam / Rotterdam / The Hague / Utrecht) are all part of the 15 most vulnerable Dutch office markets, suggesting that adaptive measures are needed to ensure future viability of a large part of the Dutch office infrastructure. The map below presents an overview of the climate vulnerability per office market.
The municipal office of the municipality of Venlo has been delivered in 2016 with the aim to be one of the Netherlands’ first fully cradle-to-cradle (C2C) office buildings. The 27.000 sq m LFA property has won multiple design awards, including the Architizer A+ Award in 2017. The property is fully energy neutral, and includes various natural design features to adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Rain- and wastewater is being collected and re-used, while natural flows of air are being used to heat and cool the building. One of the eye-catchers of the property is its green façade, contributing to biodiversity and natural cooling of the property. The crux of Venlo’s municipal office is that all the bio-based design features contribute to a healthier ecosystem while also ensuring adaptability to future climate change. Using natural lighting, heating, and cooling, has resulted in less occupiers requesting sick leave.
Municipal Office Venlo, Venlo
Leading Eco-Friendly Design
Ronald Tilleman
Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy
Our independent Data, Intelligence & Strategy team solves all of your real estate issues. We work together with developers, investors, municipalities and occupiers and offer them high-quality, highly detailed customized analyses without losing sight of the strategic question.
Our advice is based on a solid combination of reliable data and in-depth market knowledge of the various market segments within the real estate market. In our analyses we focus on factors that influence the supply and demand of real estate. The product we deliver always depends on your wishes. We offer a wide variety; from a smart one-pager, an extensive research report to a tailor-made dashboard. Our product will support you in making well-founded property decisions.
Clive Pritchard
Head of Country +31 6 61042339 c.pritchard@savills.nl
CONTACT
Jordy Diepeveen
Director Investment +31 6 111081528 jordy.diepeveen@savills.nl
Reinier Wegman
Director Investments +31 6 51311518 r.wegman@savills.nl
Apollo & ABF research, 2023; Climate Effect Atlas, 2024; Eurostat, 2023, 2024; Kences, 2023; Netherlands Statistics, 2024; Planbureau voor de leefomgeving, 2017, 2023; Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy, 2024; Savills Netherlands, 2024; Uitvoeringsinstituut Werknemersverzekeringen, 2024
Wouter van ’t Grunewold
Market Intelligence Analyst +31 6 15821872 wouter.grunewold@savills.nl
Bart Oosterhuis
ESG Advisor +31 6 21692052 bart.oosterhuis@savills.nl
Ellen Waals
Head of Agency +31 6 15282483 ellen.waals@savills.nl
The Dutch Office: Dead, or Reincarnated?
Savills maintains a positive outlook on the future of the office market, viewing it as a period of rejuvenation rather than decline. The landscape of Dutch office-based employment is poised for significant transformation, with indicators of change already apparent.
Stability in the Dutch business climate is, however, imperative for the future of the Dutch office market. This requires stable and consistent Dutch Government policy for the Dutch economy to remain competitive. Investors and occupiers are being forced to navigate a complex and evolving environment due to the increasing influence of factors like Working from Home (WFH), ESG-related regulations, climate change, political uncertainty, talent acquisition challenges, stagnating labour productivity, and technological advancements. Office buildings will evolve into assets that support business services rather than mere necessities. With the digitalisation of work, the relevance of physical office spaces diminishes, compelling office environments to compliment the WFH setup, aligning with occupier expectations in the years ahead. The future success of an office building will hinge upon its ability to address the themes outlined in this report, meeting the evolving demands of occupiers. Gone are the days when purchasing an office building guaranteed rental growth. Instead, future growth will be contingent upon careful site selection and proactive asset management. An office that fails to adapt to the changing societal expectations risks becoming unprofitable in the long run. Savills, thus, believes that the future of the Dutch office market is bright, but only for office buildings that are able to adapt to an everchanging environment. An office building should be supporting in its occupiers’ businesses, whereby it should tick all of the boxes of future occupier demand rather than just one. According to Savills, the successful Dutch office of the future is the office that is able to adapt to the effects of climate change, complies with ESG-regulations, is in close proximity to railway station, supports flexibility in occupancy, and is able to support technological needs of its occupiers.
"The hallmark of the successful Dutch office of the future lies in its adaptability to climate change, adherence to ESG regulations, proximity to railway stations, facilitation of occupancy flexibility, and fulfillment of technological requisites for its occupants."
Sources
Charlotte Harmsen
Head of Marketing & Business Intelligence +31 6 11403965 c.harmsen@savills.nl
Savills Amsterdam
Demographic Disruption
Utrecht City Special
Amsterdam City Special
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chapter Disruption
Puzzle
Conclusion