Savills Netherlands
Market in Minutes
winter 2025
An Improvement in Sentiment Likely to Pay-off in 2025
While the AEX has performed positively alongside global equity indices in 2024, real estate markets have yet to recover at the beginning of 2025. Global transaction volumes were still far behind the last 10-year average (-27%) and major investments within core-strategies were still limited. Nonetheless, the Dutch real estate market stabilised in 2024. However, the sentiment in the investment market is improving, with an increasing number of investors stating they will increase their allocation towards real estate in 2025. Furthermore, most occupier markets improved in 2024, illustrated by the recovery in office occupancy across most markets, alongside rising industrial & logistics take-up.
Although inflation is still above target levels in the Netherlands, wage increases are decelerating, and consumer prices are fading. Confidence in ‘pressured’ occupier markets such as retail and offices are improving, highlighted by positive take-up and supply trends. In 2024, Savills expects the occupier and investment market to continue to improve gradually in the first half, to accelerate in the second half of the year, as the outlook for the Dutch economy and interest rates becomes clearer.
The Dutch Economy
76%
Women’s needs
Unlocking value
male dominance in real estate shapes biased urban design
are overlooked due to underrepresentation in data
by bridging the gender gap in real estate
Real Estate Reset
Introduction
Outlook
Occupier Market
Investment Market
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This Report
Contents
Claude Debussylaan 48, 1082 MD, Amsterdam +31 (0) 20 301 2000
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Savills Beds Special 2024
Dutch Life Sciences
The Office Market of the Future
Logistics Confidence Index 2024
Market in Minutes Q1 2024
Other Reports
In 2024, Savills noticed occupiers prioritising addressing issues such as labour shortages and sustainability over expansion. However, total take-up volume in square meters reached 6.7 million, still a 2.4% increase compared to 2023. Most notably is the increase in take-up in the office sector, which increased by 20.9% YOY, led by an increase in take-up in the G5 municipalities. In the logistics sector, the diverging trend between vacancy and location continues. Property quality and location remained central themes in 2024, which Savills expects will persist into 2025.
Occupiers PrioritiSe Workforce & Sustainability
Investment Market Rebounds
An increase in investment volumes in 2024 (+20.6%) confirmed that the Dutch real estate investment market is recovering. Large increases in investment volumes were noted in the Residential sector (+32.2%), and Offices (+14.6%). More investors plan to increase their allocation towards real estate in 2025 (53% vs. 35% in 2024), driven by the prospect of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), with the Netherlands as a European favourite (4th in investor preference), according to Savills Research’ EME Investor Sentiment Survey.
Key Findings
The start of 2025 has been marked by interest rate volatility. While the ECB has been cutting short-term rates, bond yields have spiked amid geopolitical concerns and uncertainty around inflation expectations. On a positive note, Dutch GDP grew faster than the Eurozone average, at 0.9% YOY compared to 0.8% YOY in 2024.
In 2025, it is also expected to outperform the Eurozone with growth of 1.5% compared to 1% YOY.
Interest Rate Volatility in 2025
by 2.4% in 2024 compared to 2023
Take-up volume increased
Invisible Women in Real Estate
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Market in Minutes Q3 2024
BAck to the top
The Netherlands is struggling to lower inflation towards the desired 2% inflation target level. A closer look at the breakdown of Dutch inflation shows some uniquely Dutch factors contributing to the gauge. ‘Made in Holland’ is, on the one hand, linked to increases in indirect taxes, such as excise duty increases on tobacco, alcohol natural gas.
On the other hand, rising wages and housing costs, which have risen faster than in the Eurozone, have added to the country’s persistent, elevated inflation rate. In 2024, wages had a “catch-up” effect, following recently renegotiated collective agreements. In 2025, this trend is anticipated to recede, as the growth rate was slowing towards the end of 2024. In 2025, Dutch inflation is expected to hit 3.2% year-on-year before falling to 2.8% in 2026, according to the Dutch Central Bank.
persistent inflation in the Netherlands ‘Made in Holland’
Source: ECB
2024: Restoring the Balance Between Demand and Product Supply
In 2024, the economy was characterised by efforts to restore the balance between demand and supply. The economy was hampered by lagging supply stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and responsive demand from unconventional monetary policy. The ECB was forced to abandon its unconventional monetary policy raising rates aggressively in response to heightened inflationary pressures in 2022. However, it reversed its monetary tightening policy in June 2024, with four subsequent interest rate cuts ever since, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.75% in January 2025. The ECB's unconventional monetary policy from 2022 has had the desired effect on inflation, which fell to 2.4% YOY in December 2024, although the Netherlands continues to experience relatively high inflation (3.9% in December 2024), which is mainly ‘Made in Holland’.
‘Made in Holland’
Despite global uncertainties
Autumn 2024
the Dutch economy is finding balance
Unusual diverging trend between the deposit facility rate and the spot yield on government bonds
Since the start of 2025 the direction of the ECB deposit facility rate and the 10 year spot yield on government bonds have been diverging.
Since the ECB’s fourth interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December 2024, Dutch government bond yields spiked 42 basis points, reaching 2.60% , the same level as in June 2024 when the first interest rate cut took place. A similar trend is evident in other advanced economies, for example the US treasury yields has risen by 90 basis points and the UK Gilts by 90 basis points. The main driver of bond yields is the expected interest rate path, with markets scaling back their rate cut expectations since September, particularly in the U.S., due to persistent inflation, strong economic growth, and the policy stance of the incoming Trump administration.
On a positive note, GDP is growing above the Eurozone average (0.9% year-on-year compared to 0.8% year-on-year in 2024). According to the Dutch Central Bank, it is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, driven by consumer and government spending, exports, and a hoped-for recovery in global trade.
To conclude, on a positive note..
on a positive note, strong GDP growth in the Netherlands compared to the Eurozone
Nevertheless, several challenges still lie ahead that could hinder the pace of recovery, including high public debt in Europe, a potential trade war, political instability in the Netherlands and across Europe, and supply constraints from an overcrowded power grid to water shortages.
READY FOR ACTION
In 2024, occupiers leased higher volumes, while vacancy fell, as the corporate sector awaited an improving economic environment before occupying additional space. Instead, Savills observed that occupiers prioritised addressing business challenges, such as labour shortages and sustainability, to improve working conditions.
For instance, as of 1 January 2023, all office buildings in the Netherlands were required to have at least energy label C. At that time, 72% of the total office area met this requirement. Based on our current property data, this percentage has increased to 88.1% as of 1 January 2025.
2.4% Increase
Take-up reached 6.7 million a 2.4% increase
The office sector was the best performing sector in 2024
20.9% Increase
Fell 90 bps
Lower vacancy to 5.5% at the end of 2024.
The office sector was the best performing sector in 2024, with an increase of 20.9% in take up, reaching 1.2 million square meters. Office was followed by retail (0.6 million square meters, +4.8% YOY), logistics (2.1 million square meters, 2.9% YOY), and industrial (2.8 million square meters, -4.6% YOY). The decline in industrial take-up was due to the economics and political headwinds that most impacted light-industrial occupiers. In contrast, retail take-up increased, notably as solid consumer spending endures that economics uncertainty has less impact on retailers. The office market experienced improved take-up and lower vacancy, which fell 90 bps to 5.5% at the end of 2024. There was a clear shift towards higher quality and location, indicating the office reset continues. In the logistics market, there was a 160 bps increase in vacancy to 6.2% at the end of 2024, characterised by a clear shift in occupier preference according to quality and location, as the chart below illustrates.
Total take-up in square meters increased 2.4% YOY in 2024.
Source: Savills Data, Intelligence, and Strategy
OCCUPIERS ARE
In 2024, Total Take-up Volume in Square Meters Reached 6.7 Million, a 2.4% Increase Compared to 2023.
In 2024, the total vacancy rate in the logistics sector increased significantly. This increase was mainly driven by vacancy in speculative new projects (24.5%) expected to be completed in the first half of 2025. In addition, there was clear divergence between vacancy and location. Over the past year, the vacancy rates in logistics hotspots have remained essentially unchanged (4.3%), while vacancy rates outside of the logistics hotspots have increased significantly (7.9%). After years of fierce competition for space, logistics occupiers have become more selective about the location of their businesses.
Diverging Trend Between Vacancy and Location Continues in the Logistics Market
logistics occupiers are being more selective in location and quality.
Source: Savills, Data, Intelligence, and Strategy (2024)
The rise in national office take-up was primarily driven by a 25% year-on-year increase in G5 municipalities, compared to a 17% increase in non-G5 areas.
The gap in take-up between G5 and non-G5 municipalities, which first emerged in 2019, continued to narrow in 2024. In 2024, the Amsterdam office market remains to be the largest office market in the G5, accounting for 46.5% of all office take-up. Amsterdam is attractive to occupiers due to its high-quality office space, international appeal, and excellent accessibility.
The office shake-out continued in 2024.
Source: Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy
IN 2025
Offices: Shake-out in Quality and Location
distinct preferences
2024 investment shows
The recovery in residential investment volumes was mainly driven by large portfolio’s sold by large institutional investors to family offices with privatization strategies. In the second half of 2024 however, there was an increased focus of investors regarding new new-build properties. This is largely driven by Dutch institutional investors needing to deploy capital, preferably towards investment products with strong ESG-credentials and possibilities to hedge against inflation.
Residential Investment Recovery & ESG Focus
2024 Marked the Start of a Recovering Market, but Caution Remains.
The ECB’s interest rate cuts have supported the recovery in the real estate investment market. The 25 bps rate cut on the 30th of January will contribute to investor confidence in the European economy and the real estate market. The interest rate cuts are reflected in the decreasing 3-month EURIBOR rate. Decreasing borrowing costs is favourable for leveraged buyers.
In 2024, €10.6 billion was invested in the Dutch real estate market (+20.6% year-on-year), indicating that market conditions are already improving. Strong performers of 2024, compared to the previous year, were the office market (+14.6%), the residential market (+32.2%), and hotels (+32.7%).
Despite the increase in overall volumes, offices continue to fall considerably short of their ten-year average and transactions have largely reflected more value-add or opportunistic strategies. Examples included Le Carrefour in Leiden, acquired by CORUM, and Cross Towers, acquired by EDGE & Timeless Investments. For hotels, a more favourable market outlook in the tourism industry has led to renewed interest from banks and other private lenders, which was the driving force behind the Fattal / Zien transaction (approx. 360 million EUR).
2024 signalled the year of recovery in investment activity.
What’s next for 2025?
Investors are more willing to invest in the Netherlands in 2025 despite lingering, persistent inflationary pressures.
79% of landlords surveyed in Savills’ latest European Investor Sentiment survey stated a willingness to invest, compared to just 57% in 2024 and surpassing Germany in the process. Increasing concerns about the Dutch investment climate are still relatively interchangeable for an economy that continues to perform strongly compared to the EU average. Economic forecasts also show an outperformance of Dutch economic growth compared to the Eurozone, with 1.3% growth vs. 1.2%.
Bas Wilberts
Director Investment
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy Our independent Data, Intelligence & Strategy team solves all of your real estate issues. We work together with developers, investors, municipalities and occupiers and offer them high-quality, highly detailed customized analyses without losing sight of the strategic question. Our advice is based on a solid combination of reliable data and in-depth market knowledge of the various market segments within the real estate market. In our analyses we focus on factors that influence the supply and demand of real estate. The product we deliver always depends on your wishes. We offer a wide variety; from a smart one-pager, an extensive research report to a tailor-made dashboard. Our product will support you in making well-founded property decisions.
Contact
+31 6 55 47 49 60 b.wilberts@savills.nl
+31 6 61 04 23 39 c.pritchard@savills.nl
Clive Pritchard
Head of Country
+31 6 15 58 50 12 kees.vanvilsteren@savills.nl
Kees van Vilsteren
Director Valuation
+31 6 15 28 24 83 ellen.waals@savills.nl
Ellen Waals
head of Occupier Services
+31 6 21 45 05 35 pascale.schellekens@savills.nl
Pascale Schellekens
Market Intelligence Analyst
+31 6 15 31 79 47 raymond.frederiks@savills.nl
Raymond Frederiks
In 2025, the Netherlands moved up from 5th to 4th in preferred country in terms of investor geographical preference in Europe.
Source: Savills Research (EMEA)
A growing number of investors stated to increase their allocation towards real estate to 53% in 2025 vs 35% in 2024, driven by the prospect of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The start of 2025 has shown that forecasts of a slow and steady recovery can be misleading, where government bonds unexpectedly remained at higher levels.
This followed higher inflation expectancies driven by the possibility of trade tariffs. As such, the spread between ‘risk-free’ investment products such as government bonds still remains narrow compared to the years where investment volumes were highest (2018-2021).
2024 has shown considerably less volatility in terms of pricing, with the spread between bond- and real estate yields widening.
Interest rate decreases by the ECB will likely draw core-capital back to the Dutch real estate market, but the speed of which is still uncertain. Still, the solid fundamentals in occupier markets are likely to trigger more opportunistic and value-add strategies deliver returns.
In the context of rental growth, the beds, sheds and meds’ sectors are likely to be the key focus area of investors in 2024. However, the outlook for activity in CBD offices is clearly more promising as well, as decreasing vacancy rates as well as a rise in take-up signal improving occupier fundamentals.
