Savills Netherlands
Market in Minutes
summer 2025
Dutch Real Estate in an Age of Caution and Confidence
Sentiment & Economy
76%
Women’s needs
Unlocking value
male dominance in real estate shapes biased urban design
are overlooked due to underrepresentation in data
by bridging the gender gap in real estate
SHIFTING PRIORITIES
Introduction
Outlook
Investment Market
Occupier Market
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This Report
Contents
Claude Debussylaan 48, 1082 MD, Amsterdam +31 (0) 20 301 2000
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Savills Beds Special 2024
Dutch Life Sciences
The Office Market of the Future
Logistics Confidence Index 2024
Market in Minutes Q1 2024
Other Reports
Sector trends diverged with office lease renewals rising from 7.3% in Q2 2024 to 16.2% in Q2 2025. On the other hand, retail vacancy remained relatively stable at 5.8% as discounters expanded into former units of bankrupt retailers.
Sectors Show Divergence
Key Findings
Occupier take-up reached approximately 2.7 million sq m in H1 2025 across the office, industrial, logistics and retail sectors, a decrease of 31.3% YoY. Vacancy rates stood at 5.5% in the office market and 5.7% in the logistics market.
Occupier Demand Drops
Invisible Women in Real Estate
1
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Market in Minutes Q3 2024
Prime Yields Hold
Prime Net Initial Yields (NIYs) held firm in Q2 2025 across the office (4.4%), retail (3.75%), residential (3.4%) and logistics (4.75%) sectors. Non-core assets saw further yield decompression.
4
Retail
Retail Leads Investment
Investment volume reached approximately €5.8 billion in H1 2025, up 0.14% YoY. Q2 2025 investment totalled €2.3 billion, down 24.9% YoY, with the retail sector emerging as the strongest performer of all sectors.
3
WHAT MOVED THE DUTCH REAL ESTATE MARKET IN Q2 2025?
Investment volumes are projected to grow by 30.5% in 2025, reaching approximately €15.2 billion, supported by lower interest rate volatility and greater investor confidence.
5
Investment Growth Expected
Top Market Signals – Q2 2025
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (2025); Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
BAck to the top
spring 2025
FINDING CERTAINTY IN UNCERTAINTY
SENTIMENT & ECONOMY
The steady stream of extreme events continues to dominate global news, increasingly becoming the norm rather than the exception. In the Netherlands, the collapse of the Cabinet under Prime Minister Schoof has added to domestic uncertainty. This raises concerns about the future of Dutch policy-making, particularly in areas that directly affect the real estate sector. Pressing issues include the nitrogen crisis, constraints on the electricity grid, and the ongoing lack of clear policy direction for addressing housing market pressures.
Investor sentiment is increasing, which leads to an uptick in investment activity.
SSource: Macrobond (2025); Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
Cautious Optimism for H2 2025 Despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty reaching levels not seen in decades, investment sentiment is gradually returning to pre-COVID-19 levels, according to Macrobond (2025). This recovery is partly supported by the European Central Bank’s decision to lower its deposit facility rate from 3.0% at the start of 2025 to 2.0% as of June 2025.
Stability and Sustainability Drive Demand Investors appear to become more resilient to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks, gradually moving away from the “wait-and-see” approach that characterised much of 2023 and early 2024. There is a growing willingness to invest, particularly when opportunities align with established investment criteria. However, the investment process is now approached with greater scrutiny, with risks and opportunities being assessed more thoroughly as part of the decision-making process. This is reflected in investment activity, which is remaining stable in H1 2025.
What does this mean?
2.0%
ECB rate cut boosts investor confidence mid-2025
Investor sentiment nears pre-pandemic levels
PRE-Covid
Dutch elections may shift outlook amid policy gridlock
29oct
Despite this, the fall of the Schoof Cabinet is another setback for the already fragile political climate in the Netherlands. This may lead investors with limited local presence to shy away from Dutch investments, opting instead for markets that offer comparable returns with fewer political uncertainties.
The Dutch economy, while currently performing below its long-term trend, is expected to remain resilient. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Inflation is forecast to decline from 4.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, while unemployment is expected to remain steady at around 4.0% over both years. While GDP growth remains broadly in line with the Eurozone average, forecasted at 0.9% YoY in 2025 and 1.4% YoY in 2026, Dutch inflation is expected to stay relatively high, driven by strong wage growth. Average growth under collective labour agreements reached as much as 13.4% between January 2023 and May 2025, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures by boosting domestic demand. According to the CPB, this trend is set to continue, with collective labour agreement wage growth forecast at 4.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
What's been happening around the world?
Looking ahead, domestic demand is expected to remain a key driver of Dutch GDP growth. Household spending, alongside an ambitious public investment agenda targeting the defence sector and the transition to a circular and green economy, is likely to further stimulate domestic economic activity.
Resilient Sector Drivers Positive growth projections support the Dutch real estate sector. Sectors with solid occupier fundamentals, particularly those that have remained resilient in recent quarters, are likely to perform steadily amid broader economic uncertainty. Persistently high consumer spending, both in physical retail stores and online, combined with a growing focus on simpler supply chains and increased domestic industrial production, will benefit the retail, logistics, and industrial sector, respectively.
Caution Amid Uncertainty At the same time, as uncertainty continues to foster caution among occupiers and investors, real estate assets will need to meet increasingly stringent demands regarding location, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards, and pricing in order to remain competitive. Similarly, as the Dutch business climate keeps struggling to recover, real estate occupiers activity is likely to remain subdued as is reflected in the relationship between Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Indicator and take-up of real estate.
What’s next?
As the Dutch business climate continues to struggle, occupiers remain cautious in taking up new space.
Source: Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025); Statistics Netherlands (2025)
However, none of these issues have been declared controversial by the Second Chamber, potentially enabling the provisional government to continue decision-making and maintain a “business-as-usual” approach until the next elections on 29 October 2025. A bit further from home, the outlook is not much brighter. The European Union is engaged in trade tariff negotiations with the United States, while simultaneously working to strengthen regional industry and increase defence spending. These efforts come amid rising geopolitical fragmentation and isolationism, driven by escalating military conflicts —particularly in the Middle East. Meanwhile, President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” intensified concerns about the long-term role of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. These concerns are reflected in rising U.S. long-term government bond yields and Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. For global investors, this raises new questions about regional allocations, as they search for greater clarity and stability in an increasingly unpredictable landscape.
HIGHER IS HERE FOR LONGER
INVESTMENT MARKET
The Dutch real estate investment climate showed more stability in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.
This is partly due to a more stable interest rate and capital markets environment. Even though the returns on Eurozone Triple-A government bonds have moved higher, reaching 2.64% in H1 2025 compared to 2.47% in H1 2024, volatility in five-year Interest Rate Swap (IRS) rates decreased. In H1 2024, the average three-month volatility for five-year IRS rates was 23.4 bps, falling to 12.9 bps in H1 2025. It is worth noting that volatility has not yet returned to its 2020–2021 average of 5.3 bps. Unlike government bond yields, the IRS rate declined, from an average of 2.77% in H1 2024 to 2.29% in H1 2025. This reflects expectations of increased long-term government spending and debt issuance, alongside short- to medium-term expectations of further central bank rate cuts and easing inflation.
Stability slowly returns on capital markets, which is reflected in stable NIYs development
Source: Macrobond (2025), Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
Risk Appetite Shifts As low-risk opportunities like government bonds have become more attractive, real estate investors are showing a reduced appetite for risk. Riskier real estate investments, where assets do not fully meet investor requirements, are seeing yields increase. In contrast, returns on low-risk prime real estate have remained stable. Prime Net Initial Yields (NIYs) remained stable or slightly declined in Q2 2025 across the office (4.40%), retail (3.75%), residential (3.40%), and logistics (4.75%) sectors.
Rates Remain Fragile It should be noted, however, that the macroeconomic foundation underlying the current interest rate narrative remains fragile. Shock events continue to have the potential to cause significant volatility. Even so, expectations are that interest rates will stay stable in the short to medium term, as the ECB is anticipated to implement further rate cuts in response to easing inflationary pressures.
Real estate investors remained critical in H1 2025, with total investment volumes reaching €5.8 billion, an modest increase of 0.14% compared to H1 2024. H1 2025 stability is largely supported by a strong Q1 2025, as investment activity in Q2 2025 fell by 24.9% year-over-year, amounting to only €2.3 billion. The retail sector (108.0% YoY) saw particularly strong growth in Q2 2025. This was largely driven by improved outlooks, as occupier fundamentals strengthened compared to Q2 2024. Consequently, several retail transactions with a volume close to €100 million have taken place in the beginning of 2025. On the other hand, the logistics sector (-28.2% YoY) and office sector (-49.3% YoY) showed the largest declines year-on-year in Q2 2025, in part supported by heightened tensions regarding trade tariffs for the logistics sector and the unavailability of product with correct pricing for the office sec
Stable Real Estate Investments, but Only With the Right Pricing
Investment Activity Rises As the investment climate stabilises, a slight increase in investment activity is expected in the second half of 2025. Various large-sized investment transactions are projected to take place in H2 2025, especially in the logistics sector. If pricing is right, and if the current interest rate climate does not change substantially, Savills projects that investment volumes could grow by as much as 30.5% YoY in 2025, reaching approximately €15.2 billion.
Larger Deals Return Greater stability in the investment environment is particularly favourable for large-scale transactions. Savills expects that foreign institutional investors will show renewed interest in the Netherlands, provided domestic political uncertainty remains contained. As 2025 progresses, increased stability and the gradual re-entry of larger institutional players are likely to support a rise in large-sized transactions. In H1 2023 and H1 2024, only 38.8% and 34.7% of total investment volumes consisted of deals above €50 million. This share rose to 48.9% in H1 2025, indicating growing confidence and a shift toward larger deals.
Investment activity remains weak in Q2 2025, under the influence of continuing market uncertainties.
Source: Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
A QUARTER OF CONTRASTS
The Dutch occupier market saw a decline in Q2 2025, demonstrating persistent challenges against a difficult macroeconomic and structural backdrop.
Take-up in Dutch occupier market drops sharply:
−51.8%
2.7 million
sq m total take-up in H1 2025
YoY decline in Q2 2025
Total take-up in the Dutch real estate market reached approximately 2.7 million sq m in H1 2025, marking a decrease of 31.3% YoY. The total take-up in Q2 2025 reached 941.500 sq m, down 51.8% YoY.
Occupier demand continues to vary significantly across sectors and locations.
Notably, the industrial and logistics sector was a key driver behind the overall decline in take-up. Volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs from the US continue to cause unrest in global supply chains, causing logistics occupiers to be reluctant in taking up logistics space. On the other hand, the office sector showed more resilience in the last quarter, with take-up slightly increasing with 7% compared to the quarter before. By the end of H1 2025, vacancy rates in the office sector remained relatively unchanged at 5.5%, reflecting stability within the sector. In the logistics sector, the vacancy rate slightly increased to 5.7% but still remains restrictive, especially in logistics hotspots where new developments are limited.
Stalled momentum, mainly in industrial and logistics sector
Staying Put Becomes the Norm The rising share of lease extensions and renewals signals a clear shift in occupier behaviour in the office market toward more risk-averse decision-making. Instead of committing to costly relocations or expansions, companies are choosing to stay put, prioritising stability. For landlords, this trend may lead to longer negotiation cycles and a stronger focus on tenant retention strategies. In some markets, this has also led to higher incentive levels being offered to secure lease agreements.
Cautious Optimism for H2 2025 Geopolitical uncertainty and persistent structural supply constraints in the logistics sector continue to put pressure on occupier demand in the sector. Despite softening leasing activity in the past quarters, the outlook for the Dutch occupier market in H2 2025 is cautiously optimistic:
Stability and Sustainability Drive Demand Occupier activity is expected to remain stable, supported by growing confidence in certain sectors for the second half of 2025. Sustainability will continue to be a key differentiator across all asset classes, as ESG considerations become increasingly important to occupiers. Overall, while the market is not undergoing strong expansion, the foundation for sustained occupier activity is in place, especially in prime locations and with future-proof assets.
In the Dutch office market, occupiers continue to adopt a cautious stance amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Concerns over trade tariffs, inflation, and political instability are prompting many companies to postpone major housing decisions. As a result, there is a clear shift toward lease extensions and renewals in existing premises, rather than relocations or expansions. The share of lease extensions and renewals increased from 7.3% in Q2 2024 to 16.2% in Q2 2025. This upward trend highlights a broader preference for risk mitigation, as businesses prioritise operational continuity in a shifting economic environment.
To Extend or to Expand?
THE RETURN OF RETAIL
Summer 2025
Source: European INREV survey (2025)
Despite an uptick in retail sales in the Netherlands, consumer confidence remains fragile. Nevertheless, wage increases and falling interest rates are expected to continue supporting household spending. As a result, occupier fundamentals in the retail sector remain stable.
Vacancy rates are being kept in check, especially in prime locations. Some previously bankrupt chains, such as Blokker and Bax Music, are being partly relaunched or acquired. At the same time, vacant retail spaces, particularly those left behind after bankruptcies, are in high demand among expanding discounters. These value-driven retailers continue to grow rapidly due to the strength of their business model.
The sector, which was significantly impacted by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the prolonged period of economic uncertainty during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, now appears to have bottomed out. Online retail continues to grow, increasingly through omnichannel strategies that blend digital shopping with physical in-store experiences. This approach aims to maximise exposure and capture consumer spending across channels. The renewed interest in physical retail is also driven by the rising costs of online operations, particularly returns and customer acquisition.
After years of facing headwinds, the Dutch retail market is showing clear signs of stabilisation and recovery.
Source: Oxford Economics (2025), adapted by Savills, Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
Retail sales in the Netherlands expected to keep growing after a setback
Reflecting a sharp decline compared to the peak levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneously, the ratio of retail stock per capita slowed from 2021 onwards, meaning the retail stock has not kept pace with the population growth in the Netherlands up until this year.
Space Shift: Fewer retail points, but floor space stays stable. Larger formats (especially supermarkets) dominate recent developments.
Consumer Spending: Despite fragile confidence, rising wages and lower interest rates help maintain stable household spending in retail.
E-commerce & Stores: Online shopping expands further, but high return costs and acquisition push brands back to physical retail.
Retail Recovery: Dutch retail stabilises after years of disruption. Online and physical sales now reinforce each other through omnichannel growth.
Vacancy Dynamics: Vacancy sits at 5.8%. Discounters grow fast and absorb empty units from bankrupt chains in prime locations.
As of 2025, the overall vacancy rate in the Dutch retail real estate market stands at 5.8%
Especially the delivery of newbuilt retail remains very limited. At the same time, outdated retail properties are withdrawn from the market and transformed, often into residential homes, contributing to a decline of the total number of retail points in the last several years. However, the overall retail floor space in square meters has not decreased at the same rate, suggesting that the remaining stores are becoming larger more recently. This trend is particularly evident in the supermarket sector, where operators are expanding store formats. In addition to relatively stable vacancy, rental levels are presumably no longer under the same downward pressure as experienced in previous years.
Slowing retail development until last year and lower vacancy levels in the retail market
The share of investors favouring retail real estate is growing rapidly:
45%
15%
investor preference in 2024
investor preference in 2025
Investor Sentiment: A Tipping Point
Retail Recovery Gains Pace Signs of renewed strength are emerging in the Dutch retail real estate market after years of structural and economic challenges. With consumer spending remaining strong and occupancy rates improving, investor confidence is returning. Transaction volumes rose sharply in H1 2025, reflecting renewed interest in retail assets with consistently resilient footfall.
Now what?
Promising market fundamentals are having a clear impact on sentiment among European investors. As noted earlier, retail transaction volumes in the Netherlands reached approximately €900 million in H1 2025 alone, marking a significant uptick of over 110% compared to a year earlier. Investors are showing growing interest in retail assets with strong tenant covenants, consistent footfall, and long-term lease potential, particularly in segments that have proven resilient or adaptable since the pandemic. According to a survey by INREV, the share of European investors favouring retail real estate rose from 15% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, reflecting renewed confidence in the sector. Among retail formats, shopping centres have gained momentum, bolstered by larger transactions involving assets that had been on the market for extended periods. High street retail remains attractive, particularly in prime locations. Moreover, the retail warehouse sector is gaining traction due to their resilience and strong fundamentals.
Sharp improvement in investor appetite in retail real estate in 2025
Strategy Over Survival For landlords and investors, the message is clear: adaptability to evolving consumer behaviour is essential for capturing value in a sector that is shifting from survival mode to strategic growth.
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy Our independent Data, Intelligence & Strategy team solves all of your real estate issues. We work together with developers, investors, municipalities and occupiers and offer them high-quality, highly detailed customized analyses without losing sight of the strategic question. Our advice is based on a solid combination of reliable data and in-depth market knowledge of the various market segments within the real estate market. In our analyses we focus on factors that influence the supply and demand of real estate. The product we deliver always depends on your wishes. We offer a wide variety; from a smart one-pager, an extensive research report to a tailor-made dashboard. Our product will support you in making well-founded property decisions.
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Wouter van ‘t GrunewolD
Market Intelligence Analyst
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Pascale Schellekens
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Charlotte de Mos
Head of Marketing & Business Intelligence
As a result, any (re)development of these properties or their immediate surroundings is subject to strict nitrogen deposition assessments. Projects that cause more than 0.00 mol/ha/year must obtain a permit and demonstrate that they will not have a significant effect on the protected area.
AGILITY IN A NEW WORLD
Geopolitical tensions and prolonged economic uncertainty continue to affect the Dutch real estate market
The fall of Prime Minister Schoof’s Cabinet has created political gridlock on key policy issues, including nitrogen regulations, housing, electricity grid capacity, and infrastructure. Quantifying the exact impact of prolonged decision-making on the Dutch real estate market remains challenging. However, illustrating the scale of the issue highlights how mounting obstacles are increasingly affecting the sector.
For example, 100% of all industrial properties and 100% of all logistics properties are located within 25 kilometres of protected nature zones, due to the relatively large number of Natura 2000 areas in the Netherlands (162).
Every Dutch logistics property lies within 25 km of a Natura 2000 area, causing (re)developments to be subjective to strict permits.
Despite ongoing challenges, there are reasons for optimism.
If interest rates remain elevated for an extended period, as current trends suggest, yield decompression could accelerate, particularly in secondary locations. Conversely, if the European Central Bank continues to lower interest rates and political clarity emerges following the upcoming elections, Dutch investment volumes could exceed €15 billion by year-end. However, if macroeconomic volatility persists in the second half of 2025 and interest rates remain restrictive, investment volumes are likely to stay in the low €10 billion range.
Rates Up, Volumes Down
The Dutch economy continues to show resilience, and growth prospects remain positive. Sectors such as retail, and residential are performing well, supported by strong occupier fundamentals. However, caution is still warranted. Real estate investors must remain agile and carefully assess both future growth projections and the strength of their occupier base, bearing in mind that occupiers face the same economic headwinds as investors. In the second half of 2025, macroeconomic volatility and an evolving interest rate outlook will remain the key drivers of real estate activity in the Netherlands.
+31 6 3194 0107 tien.nguyen@savills.nl
Tien Nguyen
Analyst
Claude Debussylaan 48, 1082 MD Amsterdam +31 (0) 20 301 2000
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+31 (0) 6 2426 4205 johan.spin@savills.nl
Johan Spin
Retail Lead
