Savills Netherlands
Market in Minutes
Spring 2025
Building Trust Amid Uncertainty: Resilience in the Dutch Real Estate Market
Economy & Policy
76%
Women’s needs
Unlocking value
male dominance in real estate shapes biased urban design
are overlooked due to underrepresentation in data
by bridging the gender gap in real estate
Stability Through Change
Introduction
Outlook
Occupier Market
Investment Market
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This Report
Contents
Claude Debussylaan 48, 1082 MD, Amsterdam +31 (0) 20 301 2000
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Savills Beds Special 2024
Dutch Life Sciences
The Office Market of the Future
Logistics Confidence Index 2024
Market in Minutes Q1 2024
Other Reports
There was a slow, steady flow of capital into the market in Q1, with investors’ preferences for residential and retail.
Capital Flow Preferences
Resilience Meets Uncertainty
The Dutch Economy shows resilience, although it will respond to market uncertainty generated by the U.S. government’s ongoing trade initiatives. Savills expects the real estate market to continue gradually improving, but this will vary by sector. Corporates, developers, and investors will need to remain flexible and alert to the evolving economic and geopolitical landscape.
Key Findings
Leasing trends in Q1 2025 have remained consistent with recent quarters. We observed a significant shift towards more sustainable assets in the office sector. This was accompanied by a willingness to pay higher rents.
Sustainable Leasing Premiums
Invisible Women in Real Estate
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4
Market in Minutes Q3 2024
ESG Policy Shift
ESG remains a corporate priority in Europe. However, the newly introduced EU Omnibus will prompt a policy rethink, simplifying sustainability reporting pressures to enhance business competitiveness.
3
BAck to the top
ECB’s deposit facility rate cuts support interest rate stability amidst geopolitcal uncertainty
Source: European Central Bank (2025), adapted by Savills Data, Intelligence and Strategy (2025).
spring 2025
According to Oxford Economics forecasts, US tariffs will affect 6.2% of Dutch expected exports between 2024 and 2028. However, the indirect impact could be greater because the Netherlands is deeply embedded in the European supply chain. The crucial relationship with Germany accounted for 17% of Dutch imports and 14.5% of exports between 2024 and 2028.
US Trade Tariffs Affect the Netherlands More Indirectly Than Directly
Policy in motion
The Dutch Economy is Showing Resilience
What does this mean? Capital markets responded with predictable volatility to the geo-political uncertainty, raising the cost of borrowing. Heightened trade tensions have weakened the economic growth outlook, as tariffs potentially lower demand for European exports. Lower policy rates are supportive of European and Dutch real estate investment markets. However, investors will be wary of prolonged volatility in long-term bond yields.
The Omnibus Shift and Trade Turbulence
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on 17 April 2025, the seventh time in a year. The rate-cutting process is well on track in the Eurozone, amid concerns about economic growth heightened by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Rising geopolitical concerns have led to fiscal loosening in Europe. Consequently, while ECB Policy rates fell, Government bond yields rose amid unprecedented fiscal policy loosening by the German Government.
6.2%
of Dutch exports directly exposed to US tariffs
indirect hit via EU supply chain
Biggest risk
of Dutch imports come from Germany; a key US-linked partner
17%
Germany, France, and Italy are among the Netherlands' top trading partners, and the US is their major export destination. Softening US demand and slowing European manufacturing could, in turn, dampen Dutch export flows, impacting the industrial and logistics sectors.
More than 1 in 10 goods imported to the Netherlands come from the US
Source: Oxford Economics (2025), adapted by Savills Data, Intelligence and Strategy (2025)
Domestic Consumption Remains the Bright Spot
Annual growth real GDP
Source: Oxford Economics (2025), adapted by Savills Data, Intelligence and Strategy (2025).
What’s next? In short, the Netherlands is entering a lower-growth and lower-inflation environment, creating fertile ground for long-term real estate strategies focused on income resilience. Stability in wages and inflation will help support demand for occupiers and investors.
While trade tariffs are expected to constrain growth, strong wage growth alongside lower inflation supports consumption in the Netherlands. In Q1 2025, GDP grew 2% YoY, driven by higher public and consumer expenditure, according to initial estimates. There was growth in exports (+0.9% YOY) and imports (+0.6% YOY) of goods and services.
What does this mean? There remains uncertainty about the trajectory of the economy, particularly trade flows. Dutch business and consumer confidence has softened in Q1 amid broader macroeconomic developments. There are concerns that a slowdown in Germany could affect Dutch warehousing and industrial demand. Weaker global trade and declining consumer confidence may delay leasing and investment decisions. On the other hand, short-term demand may increase as businesses anticipate higher tariffs. Companies could build inventory expecting higher prices and future supply chain disruptions. Additionally, rising wages in the Netherlands and other European countries are boosting purchasing power, supporting consumer spending and driving demand for e-commerce further. Finally, potential shifts in global trade flows could further stimulate demand, such as from China, due to relatively lower tariffs in Europe. The Dutch economy grew slightly in Q1, demonstrating its resilience. Near-term demand may find support from inventory buildup and consumer spending amid shifting trade flows for Dutch warehousing and industrial assets. Nonetheless, external headwinds could still weigh on longer-term leasing and investment activity. The performance of the German economy will particularly affect logistics demand and broader real estate market sentiment.
The fundamental GDP growth outlook remains robust, but is slowing.
In 2025 the Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1.3% YOY and by 0.6% YOY in 2026. HICP-adjusted inflation is expected to average 2.9% YOY in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
The European Commission has launched the EU Omnibus: a new package of measures to improve business competitiveness, with a strong focus on easing regulatory pressure. The current reconsideration of European sustainability legislation, such as the CSRD, CSDDD, and EU Taxonomy, reflects a shift in thinking. This shift marks a strategic pause, reflecting growing concerns among policymakers, accountants, and industry bodies. The previous pace and complexity of ESG regulation could have undermined business agility, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. There are growing advocacies for a more careful, phased, and simplified approach, with more time to comply and less legal fragmentation.
The EU Omnibus comes into service
What does this mean? While this recalibration may delay some ESG reporting milestones, it does not signal a retreat from sustainability, particularly for large firms and listed entities. For real estate, the message is clear: ESG remains a business imperative, but reporting requirements become more practical and proportional.
Approved changes with the EU Omnibus
Source: Savills ESG France, adapted by Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
EU trade partners more important for Dutch exports than US
In the broader market in Q1 2025, take-up reached approximately 1.7 million sq m. This was a modest decline of -11.2% YOY, which remains in the range observed since 2022. Occupiers continued to lease space with the same focused approach observed over the past four years. Since 2022, quarterly take-up across all sectors has fluctuated between approximately 2 million and 1.5 million sq m. Quarterly take-up has averaged approximately 1.8 million sq m since 2022, compared to 2.3 million sq m between 2019-22.
Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency
Savills’ most recent analysis reveals that Dutch offices with a higher energy label achieve a statistically significantly higher rent, regardless of location. As companies align with net-zero ambitions, energy performance is considered a core asset metric, and not just a regulatory requirement. This so-called “green premium” ensures that investments in energy efficiency remain financially viable, even though reporting requirements have eased.
Tien Nguyen
Analyst
Buildings with better energy labels now command higher rents - regardless of location.
Despite Uncertainty
the Dutch Occupier Market is Stable
Occupier activity held up in Q1 2025, despite emerging global and domestic economic uncertainty and was similar to previous quarters. There has been a noticeable flight to more sustainable assets, reflected in the willingness to pay higher rents, as explained in the paragraph below.
Cautious confidence
occupiers focus on quality and resilience
Source: Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy (2025)
Take-up in sq m
In Q1 2025, the logistics vacancy was 6.8%, driven mainly by vacancy outside hotspot markets, which reached 8.5%. Vacancy in logistics hotspot markets reached 4.9%, which confirms the longer-term trend of occupiers becoming more selective, favouring strategic locations and quality buildings over size or price. The office vacancy was 5.5% in 2025 Q1, continuing its downward trend.
What does this mean? Occupiers continue to be active but are increasingly selective. Despite ongoing uncertainty, the steady take-up and decreasing vacancy rates indicate fundamental confidence. There is a strong demand for prime and energy-efficient spaces. As a result, landlords and developers need to raise their standards: Properties need to be future-proofed regarding performance and positioning to appeal to tenants. Quality has become the new standard in a marketplace characterised by cautious confidence.
Vacancy trends: tight supply, especially in prime locations
+4.9%
Logistics vacancy in key markets shows strong demand
Office vacancy keeps falling in Q1 2025
+5.5%
Higher vacancy outside core logistics areas
+8.5%
Waiting game
Capital holds Steady Amid Uncertainty
Large deals important in Q1 2025 in the Dutch retail market
Retail investment rose sharply to €261 million, a 38% increase YOY in Q1 2025. The sale of a few large shopping centres already approximately 40% of the total volume. In addition to sales of experience and convenience shopping centres, there were numerous deals in stand-alone supermarkets.
What does this mean? Retail is attracting attention, particularly from investors looking for yield. Given ongoing economic uncertainty, we anticipate investors will continue favouring convenience stores. They are regarded as relatively insensitive to financial volatility, forming part of a defensive investment strategy.
Retail
Industrial and logistics real estate investments reached approximately €621 million, accounting for nearly one-third of the Netherlands' overall real estate investment volume. While this underscores the sector’s continued importance within the market, it also represents a 25% year-on-year decline. However, the volume still seems to be in line with the pre-COVID 5-years average which amounted approximately €560 million.
What does this mean? We expect investors to shift towards a more conservative stance, especially considering potential geopolitical developments and trade policy uncertainty. Conversely, developments in the US could influence global capital flows, making more stable economies and political landscapes appear attractive to investors. Hence, we still see strong interest from investors in logistics real estate in the Netherlands and expect ongoing demand.
Logistics
In Q1 2025, office investment volumes were €212 million, down 7% YOY. Most transactions involved relatively smaller deals. Large deals in the office sector have been limited at the beginning of 2025, especially compared to activity at the end of 2024. This slowdown can be attributed to liquidity constraints in the market.
What does this mean? The office transaction market is slow, but it is not closed. Savills anticipates that more transactions will take place later this year.
Offices
Residential investments led the way, reaching about €770 million in Q1 2025 (+34% YOY). In addition to new-build investment, so-called “privatisations”, where residential homes are sold to owner-occupiers, attracted investors. Market fundamentals remained strong, with structurally high demand and lagging supply. But affordability concerns persist. Rising rents squeeze households, creating political pressure. Parliament is reviewing a proposed law to freeze social rents in 2025 and 2026. Although it targets the regulated social sector, it will inevitably affect the middle-rent and private markets. The law affects new developments, as social housing is often a part of mixed projects. If housing corporations withdraw, new construction plans may be scrapped, reducing the number of new homes and investment in the commercial residential market.
What does this mean? If social landlords withdraw from projects, private capital may face challenges in making new schemes viable. Investors are monitoring the legislative process, as policy clarity will be crucial for unlocking future residential development.
Residential
Investment volumes Q1 YOY by sector
The Dutch real estate market has experienced a steady flow of capital in Q1 2025. Despite a challenging global economic environment, total investment volumes in Dutch real estate have remained relatively stable. Some investors have been cautious overall, although particular sectors have notably outperformed expectations.
Slow and steady start to 2025
In Q1 2025, the Dutch real estate market saw moderate investment activity, with total transaction volumes reaching €2 billion, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Although investor sentiment has improved, investor activity remains restrained.
+34%
Residential investment rose 34% year-on-year in Q1 2025
Total residential investment in Q1 2025
€770million
New rent laws could disrupt future residential developments
Mixed-use risk
The Dutch real estate market has seen a steady rise in investment activity:
€2 billion
€770 million
residential investments in Q1 2025
total transaction volumes in Q1 2025
What’s unique about Dutch logistics real estate is its resilience. Despite a 25% drop, investment remains on par with pre-COVID levels. In a volatile global landscape, the Netherlands stands out as a stable, strategic hub for long-term capital.
Retail investment jumped 38% year-on-year in Q1 2025
+38%
Total retail investment, led by shopping centres, supermarkets
€261million
Niek Poppelaars
Head of Logistics & Industrial
Navigating the crossroads
Monetary Relief Ahead, but Real Estate Faces Yield Squeeze
The European Central Bank is expected to take a more accommodating monetary approach through the rest of 2025. It will consider interest rate cuts to bolster the economy amidst ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Market predictions suggest a slow increase in government bond yields due to likely higher government spending in the eurozone. Rising bond yields could raise long-term borrowing costs for real estate.
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy Our independent Data, Intelligence & Strategy team solves all of your real estate issues. We work together with developers, investors, municipalities and occupiers and offer them high-quality, highly detailed customized analyses without losing sight of the strategic question. Our advice is based on a solid combination of reliable data and in-depth market knowledge of the various market segments within the real estate market. In our analyses we focus on factors that influence the supply and demand of real estate. The product we deliver always depends on your wishes. We offer a wide variety; from a smart one-pager, an extensive research report to a tailor-made dashboard. Our product will support you in making well-founded property decisions.
+31 6 3194 0107 tien.nguyen@savills.nl
Contact
+31 (0) 203012071 iris.kampers@savills.nl
Iris Kampers
ESG advisor
+31 6 21 45 05 35 pascale.schellekens@savills.nl
Pascale Schellekens
Market Intelligence Analyst
+31 6 11403965 c.demos@savills.nl
Charlotte de Mos
Head of Marketing & Business Intelligence
Recovery will be uneven, but real assets still appeal
Clive Pritchard
Head of Country Savills netherlands
While challenges remain, the Dutch real estate market shows signs of resilience. With capital waiting on the sidelines and occupiers favouring high-quality sustainable business space, 2025 may mark a slow but steady recovery.
Savills expects the real estate market to continue gradually improving during the remainder of 2025, but performance will vary by sector. Trade policy will continue to influence the economy and market conditions, particularly the effects of tariffs and the evolving global trade landscape. It is a hapless task to try to interpret the impacts of the ongoing policy fluctuations on the Dutch real estate market. Developers and investors should remain alert to the risks and opportunities from changes to tariffs, trade and broader geo-political developments.
Tariffs Cloud Outlook
Director ESg, Operations
In real estate, we talk about location, location, location. Increasing climate risk, might just change our view of what constitutes a desirable location.
Climate Risk will Shape Future Value
While the Omnibus regulation eases short-term reporting pressure, climate risks are intensifying. The year 2024 was the warmest year globally, with Europe warming twice as fast as the global average. The built environment is increasingly under pressure from the accelerating impacts of climate change. Climate risks such as heat stress, drought, and extreme rainfall have direct consequences for urban liveability, infrastructure and biodiversity. Investing in climate adaptive measures is not only essential for ESG consideration, but also a strategic move to safeguard operations and reduce long-term costs. Location plays a critical role, as assets in resilient areas are better positioned to withstand climate extremes and ensure sustainable, efficient occupancy.
The Dutch real estate market is stabilising, though challenges remain. It continues to evolve in response to a combination of economic and geopolitical factors. The market enters Q2 2025 with cautious optimism and ongoing challenges. The Netherlands benefits from its stable economy, strong infrastructure, and strategic location as a key gateway to Europe. Nonetheless, the market is affected by global economic trends. These include uncertainties stemming from trade policies and import tariffs that continue to impact global supply chains and investor sentiment.
Real Estate Amidst Global Shifts and Regulatory Changes
The EU Omnibus has varying effects on different real estate market players. Its simplified requirements ease reporting pressure, which provides welcome breathing room, particularly for smaller players. For larger corporations, however, there is very little change. Some of these larger institutions view Omnibus as a potential drawback, as it can shift focus away from sustainable conduct. Other drivers than legislation will therefore take centre stage. Financing remains tied to sustainability markers, the beforementioned increased rent adds to that market pressure. More pressingly, physical effects of climate change are becoming a bigger driver of the need for sustainable conduct.
Impact of EU Omnibus: Less bureaucracy, but ESG still dominates
Additionally, increasing bond yields might narrow the yield premium that real estate usually provides over risk-free investments. This could affect capital values and create a more selective investment landscape.
