Logistics and Supply Chain Confidence Index
The Netherlands – Fall 2023
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VOLG ONS
Demand for Space
Introduction
Market in Minutes Q3 2023
Logistics Growth Challenges
The Dutch logistics occupier market has grown extensively over the last 5 years.
Expansion was boosted by the rise of e-commerce, nearshoring and inventory building strategies, as well as new emerging industries. The sharp decline in available logistics space testifies to these trends, with multiple logistics hotspots in the Netherlands with no availability. The prospects for the occupier market point towards significant growth, but there are notable short term economic headwinds. The ECB’s tightening of monetary policy contributed to a 0.3% (y.o.y.) fall in Dutch GDP in Q2 2023. Furthermore, producer confidence has turned negative for the first time since 2020, and exports are decreasing. This will influence business conditions in the logistics sector affecting LSPs, manufacturers and retailers. In the longer term, the business models of logistics occupiers will be affected by market constraints such as a lack of land for new warehouse developments and local labour shortages, a greater emphasis on sustainability and increased regulatory risk.
Savills, Panattoni and Analytiqa are delighted to publish the first Logistics and Supply Chain Confidence Index in The Netherlands, to assess confidence and expectations across the sector. The research was carried out against an increasingly challenging macro-environment in the Netherlands and Europe. It set out to the identify occupiers' concerns and expectations and the wider implications for the occupier and investor markets.
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Market constraints
Market Confidence
Outlook
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Confidence Among Occupiers Remains Relatively Solid
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ESG investments
Market Constraints
ESG Investments
Market in Minutes Q2 2023
Market in Minutes Q1 2023
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Labour shortages putting a brake on the fast-moving Dutch logistics sector
Summer Special 2023
Demand for space
Summary and Key Findings
Sentiment survey: a brief explanation
On behalf of Savills and Panattoni, Analytiqa conducted surveys among both logistics service providers (hereafter LSP’s), as well as manufacturers and retailers. Across different types of logistics services and industry verticals, the main questions in the research apply to current business conditions, macro-economic circumstances, ESG credentials, skills shortages and the role of technology. This report follows similar analysis and methodology that is undertaken by Analytiqa in other countries. The index takes into account the proportion of respondents quoting improvement, no change or deterioration in the sector. In the calculation of the index, a reading of over 50.0 indicates an improvement, or expectation of future growth, while below 50.0 suggests a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the change over the period. A total of 50 occupiers participated, split between logistics service providers and manufacturers and / or retailers.
The Confidence Index aims to help occupiers, investors and developers understand current and future market challenges and growth opportunities, including occupier demand for warehouse space in the Netherlands. The report analyses the current sentiment of logistics occupiers in this region. Among the key questions answered in this report, are: How do occupiers view the current economic climate and its effect on their businesses? What do occupiers identify as the key challenges on both the long- as well as the short term? What are occupiers’ attitudes towards their current and expected use of warehouse space? To what extent are ESG factors impacting occupier’s real estate decisions?
The Confidence Index
This report is made in collaboration with Panattoni
The Savills Panattoni Netherlands Logistics Confidence Index for 2023 has been set at 57.4. This reflects a cautious measure of confidence, or optimism, in the outlook for the year ahead. At 60.8, manufacturers and retailers expressed a higher level of confidence than logistics companies (54.4).
Occupiers are still relatively confident overall, with the majority (52%) expecting an increase in profits in the next 12 months. Views on business conditions in the next year differ between LSP’s and retailers / manufacturers, with 48% of LSP’s expecting somewhat worsening conditions vs. just 8% in the latter category.
The recent economic downturn has had little effect on total occupier demand. Of all occupiers surveyed, 60% indicated that they expect an increase in demand for additional warehouse space with none expecting to downsize their total warehouse space.
Respondents identified labour shortages as the factor likely to have the most significant negative impact on their company’s performance, with 38% citing improving pay & conditions to address shortages.
There is a clear willingness to pay a rental premium over the regular market rent for green facilities. 88% were willing to pay a rental premium for a green certified facility, with 59% a premium of 5% or more.
There’s considerably less demand for leasing warehouse space directly from landlords amongst retailers / manufacturers compared to LSPs, with 38% preferring to use existing space from a 3PL.
57.4
Key Findings
Still High Demand for Logistics Space, but Concerns About Availability
Occupiers Confidence
Logistics Market
Confidence among occupiers remains relatively solid
Despite an economy that’s weaker than a year ago, most logistics occupiers in the Netherlands view current business conditions as either similar or somewhat more favourable than in 2022.
Only 2% of respondents view current business conditions as more difficult than 12 months ago. In contrast, 82% see current business conditions as either the same or somewhat more favourable. This is a similar picture compared to the sentiment among occupiers on a European scale, with approximately 78% noting at least similar conditions to a year ago. Caution Ahead: LSP's Outlook While companies are broadly positive about current operating conditions compared to a year ago, they are slightly more cautious about prospects for the next 12 months, especially LSP’s. Nonetheless, occupiers still expect turnover to increase in the next 12 months (62%) as well as profitability (52%). LSP’s slightly more cautious outlook may be derived from the nature of their business. LSP’s are more oriented towards (international) trade, which has dampened due to global economic conditions, whilst freight rates are normalising from the levels witnessed during and following the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, just under half of LSP’s (46%) cited international freight costs as having a significant negative impact on their business. Retailers’ relative optimism about the next 12 months could be linked to their greater focus on the domestic market with inflation expected to soften and wages to increase in the Netherlands. Consumption in the Netherlands has remained relatively sound, with increases in turnover and only marginal decreases of consumption in volume terms.
Despite this wider challenges, manufacturers / retailers expect profitability to remain stable or rise modestly. This may be attributable to the combination of continuing e-commerce growth during an economic downturn, while lower consumer spending affects manufacturers / retailers negatively. The profitability expectations of LSP’s diverges more due to the different industry segments companies operate in. LSP’s oriented towards global trade appear more sensitive to business conditions over the next 12 months. Boosting Capital for Growth Companies are planning significant capital expenditures (CapEx) to expand their businesses. Most respondents (60%) expect to see increased CapEx in the next 12 months, with LSPs more likely to raise spending. Requirement to invest in new technologies will have the biggest positive impact on companies operating platforms (62%), with 75% of LSPs expecting a boost from tech investment. In the event of an economic downturn, companies reported they are most likely to try to improve warehouse efficiency (57%).
Profitability Prospects
Companies are planning significant capital expenditures (CapEx) to expand their businesses.
Market Constraints: Labour Shortages as the Main Challenge Facing Dutch Businesses.
Still high demand for logistics space, but concerns about availability (in the right location)
48%
Despite total take-up in 2023H1 declining 48% (y.o.y.), not a single company plans to downsize their warehouse space
LSPs not only prefer to rent, with 50% preferring to lease, but also prefer new stock. Manufacturers / retailers largely prefer to use the space of an existing third party logistics operator, or own a new build property, tailored to their own requirements. Manufacturers and retailers tend to bring production and consumption closer together and require less flexibility overall, explaining their building preferences. Some of these preferences are reflected in the take-up of logistics space which has taken place in 2023H1.
Growth Expectations
The relatively positive opinions of the industry about business conditions are also reflected in companies expecting to increase their demand for space.
Despite total take-up in 2023H1 declining 48% (y.o.y.), not a single company plans to downsize their warehouse space. Thirty six percent expect to use the same amount of space in the next 12 months, while 60% are expecting an increase. Moreover, the Netherlands has the second highest expansion plans of the countries in Analytica’s latest European Census. The responses support the impression of a market with further growth prospects. LSP’s are more optimistic about expansion, with 68% expecting to require extra warehouse space compared to 48% of manufacturers / retailers. Expansion Challenges in Netherlands There are several reasons why expansions can be difficult. The decrease in take-up in 2023 has predominately been a consequence of very low availability in the more desired hotspots. The market has historically low vacancy rates (2.8%) with prime rents in almost every logistics hotspot increasing in recent years in the Netherlands. In some hotspots, there is virtually no availability and it is as low as 1% in Venlo-Venray and Tilburg-Waalwijk, for example. Consequently, 64% of companies stated finding suitable locations were a barrier to expansion, together with the costs of new logistics space. This is despite the overall costs for occupiers in the Netherlands being significantly lower compared to other European hotspots such as London, Paris and Berlin .
Furthermore, companies also report other factors affect finding a suitable location alongside the lack of availability, such as local labour shortages, power grid availability or policies restricting new developments. LSPs (79%) identified finding suitable logistics space as a key challenge, compared to 50% of manufacturers / retailers. Manufacturers / retailers are more inclined to own their logistics premises, while LSPs are more likely to lease properties. LSPs put a greater emphasis on location than manufacturers / retailers.
Challenges to find new warehouse space
The growth of e-commerce has slowed as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has faded and excess demand for warehouse space has largely subsided. This partly explains the low share of trade-related logistics take-up in 2023H1 (21%). Transport companies, including the LSPs mentioned earlier, were actively leasing, accounting for 65% of total take-up year to date.
E-commerce Impact
Esg Investments Imminent in the Logistics Occupier Market
Labour Shortages as the Main Challenge Facing Dutch Businesses
Workforce Worries
Despite the clearly stated growth ambitions of operators, there are increasing constraints on the expansion of warehouse space in the Dutch logistics market.
There are shifting societal attitudes towards new developments, limits of the current power grid, and now increasingly occupiers are experiencing local labour shortages. Labour availability and costs have become a key concern for logistics occupiers and play an important role in companies’ real estate decisions. Just under half of respondents raised concerns about labour supply and labour costs, with LSPs (63%) more focused on this business risk. Undoubtedly, the labour market has become tighter in the Netherlands in recent years exemplified by a headline unemployment rate of 3.6% in July 2023. Labour market tightness is very apparent in the transport and storage sector with an average of 19,900 unfilled jobs in 2022, more than five times the number in 2013 according to Statistics Netherlands. There have been similar increases in trade and the manufacturing sectors. 49% of occupiers cited staff shortages and labour costs as impacting their current company performance, including 63% of LSPs. Staffing factors, including labour supply and costs, employee retention, and investing in people, were listed by LSPs as key challenges over the next 12 months. Local labour availability was highlighted as one of the most important considerations in the development of future logistics facilities, the second most important consideration for LSPs after location.
This difference can partly be explained due to the type of geographic location from which they operate. E-commerce retailers tend to locate in areas with large populations and thus a higher potential supply of labour. LSPs are oriented towards international distribution and locate in logistics hotspots such as Venlo – Venray, Tilburg and Eindhoven. These locations are well-connected within the Netherlands and to densely populated markets in Belgium and Germany. However, labour availability is also declining in these regions, increasing dependency on labour migrants which is not always supported by local populations. Workforce Strategies To address staff shortages, 59% of LSPs indicated improving pay and conditions in the next 12 months, compared to just 17% for manufacturers and retailers. LSPs were also more likely to cite enhancing staff wellness and employment flexibility, as well as improving career opportunities as measures to deal with staffing shortages. Manufacturers and retailers are not necessarily unwilling to address these issues but are more focused on improving specific skillsets for their workers while experiencing lower turnovers in personnel. In addition, as part of their broad sustainability approach, half of companies said they would invest in employee welfare and wellness over the next 12 months in recognition of the importance of retaining staff. Furthermore, amongst the most cited steps they’d take over the next 12 months, companies said they would improve training and remuneration and enhance wellness and employment flexibility.
Labor availability and costs are major concerns for logistics occupiers, especially LSPs, with just under half of respondents expressing worries about these factors.
Occupiers willing to pay a premium for properties with green credentials
ESG investments imminent in the logistics occupier market
Most companies (87%) stated they are going to be investing in sustainable initiatives for their supply chains, responding to the impact of climate change and wider Corporate Social Responsibility demands on their businesses. The reasons for investing in sustainable initiatives are broad, but the main driver for taking measures is meeting specific regulatory requirements. Green Premium Indeed, most occupiers are willing to pay 5% or more for Green certified buildings, with 25% of manufacturers / retailers, stating they’d pay a premium of more than 10%. Likewise, most companies expressed a willingness to pay a rental premium of 5% or more for a switch to green energy, with 25% of Manufacturers / retailers stating they’d pay a premium of more than 10%. Although occupying buildings with ESG credentials is not the top priority for occupiers, they are considering environmental factors in the selection of warehouse space. Although only 4% of all the respondents indicated the main reason for paying a premium was to reduce costs, this could still be a key motivation. Manufacturers could particularly save additional money by investing in less energy intensive warehouse space.
Dutch logistics property occupiers are relatively optimistic about prospects for business growth, expecting to increase their warehouse needs in the next 12 months, despite the weaker economic backdrop. There’s healthy demand for suitable space with no desire to downsize despite a slightly cautious outlook. This positive sentiment corresponds with findings from the recent Savills European Real Estate Logistics Census which reported healthy occupier demand for industrial and logistics real estate despite the softening European macro outlook. Sentiment has improved in Europe overall, but rising costs and labour availability issues dominate Dutch and European occupier concerns. Overall demand for industrial and logistics is healthy, and the business outlook of occupiers improved marginally on a year ago. ESG is gaining visibility amongst occupier concerns, especially improving carbon performance and accessing green energy. Logistics occupiers highlighted several longer term challenges in the Analytiqa census. Occupiers face a lack of suitable available space, labour availability and increasing costs, while restrictions on warehousing in the Netherlands are also key issues for logistics companies. ESG considerations are clearly an increasing factor in the operations of occupiers and the Dutch market is anticipating legislation. Logistics buildings have no minimum energy label requirement like offices in the Netherlands. However, the Dutch market has responded to occupier demands for more sustainable buildings with BREEAM certified stock that meets institutional occupier requirements growing. Some of these issues could place a ceiling on the growth of the Dutch logistics market. Nevertheless, many of these will need to be addressed through a higher degree of creativity and collaboration from occupiers, governments and landlords. Undoubtedly, this should be achievable in view of the strength of demand from logistics occupiers and the strong interest from international institutions in the Dutch warehouse market. Nonetheless, the growth of the logistics sector will also highly depend on local and national policy makers’ attitudes towards the industry in the Netherlands.
Occupiers face a lack of suitable available space, labour availability and increasing costs, while restrictions on warehousing in the Netherlands are also key issues for logistics companies.
Limits to growth on the horizon
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy
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Raymond Frederiks
CONTACT
Market Intelligence Analyst +31 6 15 31 79 47 raymond.frederiks@savills.nl
Niek Poppelaars
Head of Logistics & Industrial +31 6 27 88 24 08 niek.poppelaars@savills.nl
Douglas van Oers
Head of Logistics & Industrial +31 6 15 68 49 70 douglas.vanoers@savills.nl
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Managing Director Panattoni Nederland +31 (0)20 210 55 45 nlinfo@panattoni.com
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demographic Disruption
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Many of the increases are associated with holdings that have been under-rented
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chapter Disruption
Puzzle
Conclusion
Future Shifts Ahead
