Summer Special
The Netherlands – Summer 2023
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VOLG ONS
Demographic Disruption
Introduction
Market in Minutes Q3 2023
Disruption Trends
Real estate produces around 30% of the world's annual greenhouse gas emissions and consumes nearly 40% of the world's energy according to the UN Environmental Programme.
Carbon is embedded in nearly every phase of building construction and operation. Real estate owners therefore need to make major contributions to Europe’s goal of meeting the 2015 Paris Goals by lowering energy use, and thus carbon use, in buildings for construction and renovation as well as occupation. What will a just, and affordable energy transition, imply for real estate owners, developers, and occupiers in the Netherlands? Demographic shifts have an impact on every sector of the economy. They affect housing preferences and in the commercial sector, influence the space requirements of tenants’ and influence investment demand. Clearly, developments in the size and structure of the Dutch population will fundamentally affect the future shape of the country’s real estate markets and sectors. Digital disruption Digital disruption is a constant theme for occupiers and investors and has become closely associated with tech and digitalisation. Real estate has already experienced the effects of technological advances disrupting the way people live, work and spend their leisure time. Firstly, through the rapid growth of e-commerce and more recently, work from home. Their advance will further affect real estate sectors as businesses absorb the implications of the emergence of AI for the way they utilise real estate. How will real estate owners and investors need to further adapt their business platforms to digitalisation?
The Dutch commercial real estate market has changed profoundly since the Financial Crisis in 2008, driven by structural transformations that will continue to shape the industry over the next decade. The drive for decarbonisation, demographic and digital disruption, are 3 prominent themes that have been impacting commercial real estate across the world since before COVID-19 and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The evolution of these factors will dominate where and how people live and work and will shape economic activity for the foreseeable future.
Dutch real estate transforms with global shifts. Demographics, digital disruption, and decarbonisation shape industry. Living, working, and markets evolve.
Digital Disruption
Decarbonisation
brain teasers
of global greenhouse gas emissions comes from real estate, which also consumes nearly 40% of the world's energy.
30%
Listen to our podcast: 'No Stone Unturned.' about the trends and developments in the Dutch real estate market. Savills’ Charlotte Harmsen is joined by experts across sectors. Retail, hotels, (flex) offices, life sciences, industrial and senior living. We bring you engaging and insightful discussions on the issues that matter most in Dutch property.
NO STONE UNTURNED
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Decarbonisation and Stranded Assets in the Dutch Real Estate Market
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Conclusion
Brain Teasers
Market in Minutes Q2 2023
Market in Minutes Q1 2023
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The need to de-carbonise the real estate sector has never been greater.
However, there is mounting concern from investors, banks, sustainability experts and policy makers globally, about the rate at which properties of all sectors are moving towards becoming more environmentally sustainable. The office sector has been particularly subject to stringent regulation in the Netherlands, aimed at lowering carbon emissions. The pressure to decarbonise real estate coincides with the office sector’s slow recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Office utilisation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels in many cities globally, and in the Netherlands, there have also been fears that some office assets becoming stranded. The number of assets that do not meet the performance standards tracking Paris-climate criteria remain stubbornly high. Rates of retrofitting vary between sectors and property owners often offer a list of the challenges they face. Barriers to retrofitting mentioned, include lack of skilled installers, lack of materials, weak political and policy frameworks and limited incentives. The most frequently cited obstacle is the financial cost of improving a building’s performance. Undeniably all these difficulties have been exacerbated in the office sector by the slow post-covid recovery in occupancy.
40%
A staggering 40-45% drop predicted by London's Capital Economics, the impact on commercial property values is profound.
Globally, both the specialist property and the mainstream media have illustrated the challenges facing the office sector, with reports highlighting some of the most sensational of statistics affecting the industry. Return to the office has been variable, and at the most severe end of the market are American cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles, with vacancy rates of almost 32% and 30% respectively. The impacts on commercial property values have been profound, but lower occupancy levels also imply the presence of fewer office workers which has a knock on effect on other local commercial enterprises. Dry cleaners, cafes and after-work bars, located in zones that service workers, are suffering massive losses and, in many cases, leading to store closures in downtown areas. The reluctance of some employees to return to the office suggests that the availability of playful amenities and sitting alongside colleagues, have not been enough to compensate for high rents and mortgages and commuting costs in certain global markets. The pressure to return to office from employers is growing. Mostly recently the story that Zoom, the software company that dominated the early period of Covid-enforced working from home, demanded that its own employees return to their offices, was carried by news outlets around the world. In the Netherlands, where commuter journeys are shorter, the return to office has been steadier and utilisation rates have moved up to 55 to 65% levels. Indeed, vacancy figures from European capital cities, look much better than in North America according to Savills’ research, with vacancy rates at the start of 2023 at 2.4% in central Paris, 3.3% in Berlin and 4% in Stockholm . Amsterdam’s vacancy is 6.9%, up 1% on the same period last year, with prime rental growth of 16% over the past twelve months. But there is more beneath those headline figures, and they bear closer inspection. Some of these global trends are visible in parts of the Dutch office market, which is becoming increasingly polarised. High-quality properties, which have good accessibility to public transport and strong environmental credentials are in high demand, leaving behind assets that do not meet these standards. The divergence in office demand is further illustrated by office vacancy rates, with almost 16% of all empty offices buildings in the Netherlands clustered in 1% of all office stock across the country. And this polarisation is driving up rental values for the best performing buildings, as an increase in demand coincides with a nationwide shortage of this standard of building.
Sustainability is just one of the challenges facing the office sector.
The office sector has been particularly subject to stringent regulation in the Netherlands, aimed at lowering carbon emissions.
A closer examination of Dutch office occupancy reveals links between the level of office vacancy and structural characteristics, such as building age, location, and ESG-credentials. For example, properties constructed between 1990 and 2010 have the highest vacancy rates. That properties of this age enjoy fewer major refurbishments and, their development, often in secondary and tertiary locations, and not reflecting modern occupier demands, may account for this. Overall, those buildings that do not meet current occupier demands are typically older, with 76% constructed before 2000. Additionally, about 55% have either no EPC Label at all or an EPC Label rating of B or lower. In terms of BREEAM Certification, only about 4% is rated ‘Very Good’, ‘Excellent’ or ‘Outstanding. And their disparities across the country with 73% of these poorly performing buildings located outside of the largest five (G5) cities.
Intuitively, one might expect a straightforward correlation between EPC Labels and vacancy levels. However, digging deeper into the data suggests that EPC should not be seen as the only determinant of vacancy rates. Location always rates highly in an occupant’s decision making, and building age is equally important. Younger buildings with better EPC labels or BREEAM certifications have lower vacancy rates. Only 4.6% of vacant space is in offices with an EPC Label A or higher, or BREEAM ‘Very Good’ or better certification, and a construction year after 2010. In other words, 5.0% of the total Dutch office supply, and 0.68% of the total Dutch office stock. In the G5 cities, vacancy rates for these kinds of properties are even lower at 4.3% of supply.
At the same time, the low availability of high-quality office space has driven up rents in recent years. Savills' analysis of rental data reveals that, on average, the rental difference for offices with an EPC Label A or better or a BREEAM ‘Very Good’ or better certification, is between 3% - 7% nationwide for newly leased office space. In the largest five Dutch cities (G5), the average difference is even higher, between 5% - 17%. This analysis suggests that there is a danger that a significant portion of the Dutch office stock is at risk of being “stranded”. Older buildings with poorer environmental credentials, in secondary locations not only demand lower rents but are at greater risk of becoming vacant. A tougher economic backdrop is limiting the development of modern buildings, leaving the market to deal with extremely low vacancy rates for high quality, ‘Paris Proof’ office buildings. Consequently, Savills, expects further rent increases for these properties, as supply cannot keep up with the projected demand.
It is not clear from the data where the main barriers to retrofitting lie within the current system. Conversations with key stakeholders indicate that the main challenge faced is in offsetting the costs against future rental income. While property management and valuation teams would recommend that retrofitting costs are built into ongoing maintenance expenditure, increases in Capex are always problematic. However, this is not an issue faced solely by commercial landlords. Owners of residential properties, whether they are the occupiers or not, are also searching for affordable options. Almost regardless of the sector, the financial aspects of greener and greening properties are often the strongest motivator. As recent geopolitical issues have demonstrated, there is keen interest in energy consumption, green technologies and in-use costs when energy prices rise. The potential to reduce carbon emissions from any property rests on two aspects - the energy performance of that building and the energy demands of its occupants. Retrofitting provides the user with the tools to reduce their impact on the environment. It is the consumption of energy that offers the greatest impact but requires, from many, a significant shift in mindset. There are likely to be some properties that will not be upgraded to meet the standards for commercial buildings even with government backed incentives. Therefore, the future for stranded assets may be in designing future opportunities beyond their original purpose. Repurposing Property Potential The greatest difficulties are focussed on the future of those properties languishing at the bottom of the EPC ratings. But are these potentially stranded assets also an untapped opportunity? The adaptive re-use of commercial buildings, converting them for alternative uses, offers enormous potential for creativity. With a growing need for housing affecting almost every city globally, including Amsterdam, the calls to convert vacant office stock to residential is easy to demand but not always straightforward to deliver. With a deep floor plate and windows that don’t open, not all offices are suitable for residential conversions. Indeed, in major Dutch cities the easiest opportunities were often redeveloped after the GFC although there are some exceptions.
Alongside the environmental benefits of retaining and retrofitting existing buildings, are the social, cultural and architectural heritage that relay the narrative of a place and provide a character to each city and town.
Alternative routes towards the goal of lowering emissions in the real estate sector.
Evidence from other countries may be helpful for future developments in the Netherlands. Although building vertically rather than horizontally may take adjustment in some cities in the country, it may provide a blueprint for future development in urban areas. For example, the University of Technology Sydney, known as UTS, occupies one 27 storey tower west of the city centre that makes for an easy landmark. Moreover, universities across the UK are taking up vacant office space in London in an international competition to attract overseas students keen to study in the country but less enthusiastic for the regional experience. Closer to home, the former offices of Centraal Beheer in Apeldoorn, built in 1972, are due to be converted by Dutch architectural practice MVRDV in collaboration with the building’s original designers AHH, to provide 650-800 homes. The development, near the train station, will form part of the redevelopment of the three hectare site that, it is hoped, will provide the catalyst for additional housing. Renewable Construction One solution for decarbonising the real estate sector is developing with (natural) renewable materials, also known as bio-based building. Biobased building not only offers advantages for the environment, but research shows it is beneficial for occupiers. Building with wood offers one route towards decarbonisation. It is a sustainable alternative to building with concrete as CO2 is stored over time, while the production of concrete leads to CO2 emissions. Building times are faster with Cross Laminated Timber (CLT), and nitrogen emissions also reduced during construction (See Savills, 2021, Biobased bouwen: een oplossing die wel hout snijdt). Building with natural materials like wood reduces overall CO2 emissions in the long run and can contribute to the long run circularity of a building. One of the main challenges is that the construction industry in the Netherlands is set up to build with concrete and stone, and is in the process of discovering sustainability as a long-term strategy, and understanding the risks and returns of building with wood. There is more experience with timber/ CLT construction elsewhere, mainly in Scandinavia, Canada and Australia. However, there are a growing range of examples in the Netherlands. HAUT was completed in 2022, although it also uses concrete, it is a pioneering project in the use of natural materials in high-rise buildings in the Netherlands. Moreover, Lingotto also completed HoutWerk an office building in CLT in Utrecht in 2021.
More environmentally sustainable offices can attract higher rents.
Retrofitting of Commercial and Residential Property Lags Expectations
If the demand for offices in major European cities is so high, why are so many properties still not retrofitted?
Besides residential re-development, opportunities exist for the subdivision of buildings to create mixed use buildings. As the density of urban areas has increased, reducing urban sprawl and delivering environmental benefits, it has reduced the land available for new community facilities or extensions to existing community buildings. Therefore, ideas like converting ground floor reception areas and their back offices to provide retail units, cafes or community hubs, activating the façade at street level, which could extend to the next few levels, could prove attractive.
Urban Mixed-Use Evolution
Underappreciated
Emerging Opportunities for Real Estate From Decarbonisation.
The demands of meeting the Net Zero emissions Paris targets are obviously placing significant financial strains on real estate owners and occupiers. Parts of the office sector are still adjusting to the implications for valuations from WFH and hybrid working. Undoubtedly, older, less efficient offices face significant issues in meeting tenant demand for well-located sustainable space. However, the evidence from the Netherlands is that fears over widespread stranded office assets are wide of the mark, and the demand for more sustainable office and commercial property space in general, will present attractive opportunities. Looking ahead, the first step for determining the future of any asset should be an accurate assessment of the building’s environmental performance. There should be a tailored analysis offering options for retrofitting and renovation, examining the prospect of remaining a commercial building for which, as demonstrated earlier, there is great demand in the Netherlands. If an alternative use is deemed a better option, then a local needs and future demand assessment, considering future, local policy and demographics, will provide greater confidence in any potential options. Alongside the environmental benefits of retaining and retrofitting existing buildings, are the social, cultural and architectural heritage that relay the narrative of a place and provide a character to each city and town. The examples referred to in this report that were recently developed in the Netherlands, show the real estate sector can meet the challenges of decarbonisation. Consequently, despite the considerable work required to lower the carbon footprint of the sector, the future of commercial real estate is not as bleak as some commentators predict.
Centraal Beheer, Apeldoorn, 1972
Statistics Netherlands, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy, Rijksoverheid, NUL20, Council for the Environment and Infrastructure (RLI), World bank
Demography and the Dutch real estate market
Demographic DISRUPTION
Population and household change shaking up Dutch Real Estate
Understanding the Historical Impact of Demographic Shifts on the Built Environment, and their Unveiling in the Dutch Real Estate Market
Many demographic changes move slowly over long time periods, allowing policy makers to prepare for their effects. For example, according to Statistics Netherlands, the Dutch population will grow by 10% to almost 20 million by 2050. Therefore, planners can anticipate greater pressure in the country’s already densely occupied towns and cities. Amongst major nations, the Netherlands is the third most densely populated country in the world and the challenge of fitting all the additional real estate will only grow. Alongside population growth, the rate of household formation is a related longer term development which has important consequences for property markets. The age at which people have their first child is increasingly being postponed. Most recent statistics show that the average age of when a mother has her first child was 30.3 years old in 2021, compared to 29.1 in 2000 and 25.6 in 1980.The trend towards smaller, very often single person households, is well-established in the Netherlands like many other developed economies. Diverse Household Growth Clearly, housing demand will be intrinsically tied to the growth in different types of household formation. The growth in single person households is expected to further accelerate in the Netherlands by 2050, from 39.0% of the households in 2023 to 42.1% by 2050. This will stimulate higher demand for smaller, multi-family homes. Another longer term demographic shift in the Netherlands is the substantial increase in the share of seniors (65+) in the Netherlands from 20.5% in 2023 to 24.8% by 2050. This could have a dramatic effect on the demand for homes suitable for older households.
Demographic shifts and people’s personal preferences have had a profound influence on the design of the built environment throughout history. The impacts of demographic change on the Dutch real estate market are explored in this section. It examines how the Dutch population is expected to change, and its impact on the Dutch housing market, as well as how the housing preferences of different generations influence housing demand and supply. Finally, it investigates the consequences for commercial real estate of demographic change.
42.1%
A projected surge in Single-Person households, surpassing 39.0% in 2023 and predicted to reach by 2050
However, there is not a simple causal relationship between household formation and demand for different types of housing. The housing preferences of individuals are also a determining factor. And there is clear evidence that preferences vary significantly between generations. Millennials as well as Gen Z have grown up with and are more adapted to technology than previous generations. For example, shopping behaviour among these generations is more oriented towards digital shopping – contrary to older generations which were more oriented towards physical stores. Perhaps more importantly, both Gen Z and millennials are considered to behave more individualistically and have more flexible lifestyles.
Generational Housing Preferences and their Impact on Demand
Complex Dynamics
+10.7%
+ 1.895 million Inhabitants
Statistics Netherlands
Source
+12.6%
+ 1.040 million Households
+33.6%
+ 1.217 million Seniors
+21.4%
+ 0.688 million Single-person households
From now untill 2050...
Figure
Dutch Demographic Variability
Migration and shifting preferences as main drivers of diverging demographic developments
Population growth is not predicted to occur uniformly across the country, with Statistics Netherlands expecting larger cities to attract new inhabitants, while regions located on the eastern borders experience population decline. This divergence in terms of growth is due to two main reasons; see below. These trends are expected to continue going forward. Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) expect ongoing labour strong demand driven in part by an aging population, which will stimulate demand for labour migrants. In addition, while urbanization will contribute to the growth of cities, it will be most likely at the expense of other less densely populated regions. This could create a negative spiral, with the number and quality of services declining in shrinking regions, further undermining their attractiveness and thus contributing to additional, future, population loss. This process was extensively reported on by the Council for the Environment and Infrastructure (RLI) in the report ‘Each Region Counts!’, which addresses the shrinking of care, education and public transport facilities. Finally, international migration levels into the country could be influenced by climate change. The Netherlands could host ‘climate refugees’, leaving countries which become less habitable for countries such as the Netherlands, which have a higher adaptability to climate change. The degree to which demographic change disrupts the demand for real estate, will vary considerably across locations. Less urbanised, and more rural areas will have lower demand for smaller sized dwellings. In contrast, housing demand has altered at a the relatively fast pace in urban locations. For example, housing shortages have grown, in part due to immigration, which has exceeded expectations . Urbanisation has meant that cities require more suitable commercial property, particularly industrial space around large cities, to meet the needs of a growing population. In addition, the shifting preferences of new generations also leads to demand for different amenities in urban regions.
The replacement rate varies across the country with natural declines occurring where the number of new-borns is not matching deaths. In addition, the contribution from migration is expected to increase, both because of labour migrants following labour shortages, and to an increased in refugees. Moreover, migrants tend to settle in locations where there are existing migrant communities, with immigration from population growth concentrated in larger urban areas. For example, the Province of Noord-Holland has approx. 1.3 times the number of inhabitants as the province of Gelderland, but over 3 times the number of immigrants in 2021.
Divergent Growth
Ongoing urbanisation is shifting population growth to certain parts of the country. The increasing importance and concentration of sectors like business services and tech in the Dutch economy has enhanced the attractiveness and stimulated the growth of the country’s larger cities. As such, urbanisation is expected to remain a dominant theme in future.
At the end of 2022, the Dutch government released the programme “Living and Care” in response to the need for additional dwellings for older households. The programme’s ambition was to build 290,000 homes for older residents out of a total target of 900,000 houses. This in turn, is divided in the following:
A tight housing market will get tighter.
The location of these new dwellings will largely depend on the ratio in which the ‘younger’ population is being replaced by the elderly. Replacement is higher in peripheral regions, especially on the eastern border as the map below illustrates. The area’s marked in grey entail a slow growth or even a decline of the population, while the total share of the elderly population grows quite strongly. Therefore, the total housing stock in these regions might not be best served for additional senior housing developments but rather transformations of as much of the existing stock into senior-friendly housing. This could eventually be a considerable burden for private homeowners, as well as landlords in the rental sector. In regions where there’s a growth in the number of older households, but a relatively low increase in the overall share of the population, adding to the stock of senior housing could be an efficient way to using the overall housing stock. This approach could encourage older households to leave larger dwellings which are suitable for younger age groups. This could apply to multi-family housing developments in large cities, particularly the older stock. Multi-family properties like these typically lack senior-friendly facilities like elevators but are suited to younger households
zero-stairs dwellings
An ageing population will impact demand across sectors.
Its sole requirement: the entirety of the dwelling is accessible through a wheelchair. These dwellings are suitable for, but not explicitly built for this target group.
170,000
clustered dwellings
These dwellings often with meeting spaces, include courtyard homes, service flats and senior citizen flats. Clustered housing forms are primarily designed to meet the living requirements of the elderly, occupy homes that are at least zero-floor, and thus provide higher living comfort.
80,000
nursing home places
These nursing home places have extra care facilities, making them better for people with disabilities or for providing. care in general.
40,000
The average household size is expected to shrink further by 2050, generating demand for additional dwellings. But this type of change will require a transformation in the housing market. Although one-person households use less living space than multi-person households, they use considerably more space (88 sq.m) than the average for all Dutch households (53 sq. m). Moreover, the average Dutch household occupies considerably more space than their counterparts in Germany (47 sq. m) and the UK (44 sq.m).
Shrinking homes for shrinking households
One suggestion for tackling tight local housing markets is for example, to encourage the ‘sharing’ of existing dwellings between friends, using the current stock more efficiently. However, there is some resistance from policy makers. In 2020, the municipality of Amsterdam regulated the degree to which dwellings could be occupied in this way, aiming to protect tenants from ‘exploitation’ by predominately private landlords, who subdivided dwellings to increase the number of tenancies and maximise rental income. Amsterdam reversed this policy at the start of 2023, responding to housing shortages although tenant associations criticised this reversal over concerns about liveability. The possibilities for splitting or sharing dwellings with friends appear limited. The solution to shortages is, more realistically, building sufficient smaller sized dwellings designed for one-person households. This might come from transforming other types of real estate, or from new approaches to building, like modular constructed housing. The Dutch government recognises that a sizeable number of new dwellings are needed and thereby counts on less conventional building methods as well (graph below). Technologies for rapidly building dwellings in factories have improved in recent years, and smaller dwellings are easier to standardise and especially suitable for the growing number of one-person households. In future, they could become a more common feature in urban areas in the Netherlands.
The intergenerational appeal of community influencing real estate markets
Finding community despite individualisation
The trend towards individualisation in society has been clearly reflected in the growth in the proportion of one-person households in the Netherlands, which will most likely encourage a growth in smaller sized dwellings. If future generations adopt a more individual lifestyle, does it imply the built environment becomes more anonymous as well, and that society moves away from traditional, close-knit communities? This may not be the case. Younger generations aren’t necessarily rejecting living in a community but choosing which one they prefer to live in. This is a process that implies looking for purpose in places outside traditional local communities. The implications for Dutch real estate, however, are that new generations are more flexible in choosing where they live and are less committed to staying within communities (Twenge, Freeman, Campnell, 2012) . They are more likely to move if a community is no longer meeting their needs. Younger generations are often considered more ‘alone’ in public space, rather than in company in private space, compared to previous generations. A consequence of this process of social individualization, is for example, a rising demand for shared forms of housing to maintain a sense of community (Beck-Gernsheim, 2002). But this process of individualization also results in greater demand for closer proximity to a wider selection of amenities than in previous eras, to maintain a sense of community. Previous research aimed at Millennials and Gen-Zs, indicates a preference for walkability and mixed-use neighbourhoods . This trend will lead to a shift towards properties and neighbourhoods which have high quality amenities. Real estate developers will face the challenge of developing neighbourhoods which offer high quality living space, with well-designed public spaces served by sought after amenities that generate a sense of inclusion. Inter and homogeneous generational living schemes. The rise of inter and homogenous generational living schemes are examples of this development. It implies the creation of large, often mixed-use developments with an increased number of shared amenities. Dutch multi-family buildings have traditionally been developed with quite basic, limited amenities, inside the dwelling. But the number of living schemes with multiple shared amenities outside the dwelling, like communal roof terraces, workspaces and common rooms, is on the rise and expected to increase further. These so called ‘co-living’ (short for ‘communal living’) schemes are already more common in the UK but on the rise in Amsterdam as well (Ronald, Schijf, Donovan, 2023) . Examples of recent developments are Cohesion, Change=, The Don and The Domain, all which have been developed within the last decade. Nonetheless, housing shortages in Dutch cities means younger households have little choice about where they live. Home could either be a property in a regular apartment building, or a co-living home. The lack of housing choice for younger households could potentially exaggerate the popularity of co-living schemes. Despite this, residential schemes designed for community based living certainly appear to have momentum, shown by the increasing number of properties being constructed. This increasing desire for communal living is not confined to younger households and will likely apply to older households particularly as Millennials and Gen-Z age. When traditional community in the Netherlands is no longer found in the church or in a sizeable family living nearby, older households begin looking for a substitute in the form of communal living schemes for the elderly. Furthermore, there are now examples where intergenerational schemes have been completed in the Netherlands. For instance, there are residential buildings specifically designed to facilitate, and even encourage, encounters between young and old, such as Living-Inn in Nijmegen and AMST in Amsterdam.
offers a blend of historic courtyard living and contemporary comfort, providing secure, independent homes with privacy alongside the benefits of community. Aimed at those aged 45 and above, it fosters optional neighbourly assistance and knowledge-sharing, catering to modern seniors seeking self-reliance and diverse interactions.
Knarrenhof®
is a housing and care concept for seniors and newcomers, emphasizing communal enjoyment and interactions. It offers well-appointed, adaptable apartments for seniors, with on-site care options. Partners with increasing care needs can stay together in the care wing, while affordable, cozy apartments encourage shared living for newcomers, fostering connections through shared amenities.
Living-Inn
is set up as an intergenerational complex, and the architecture is based on the Chinese "Hakka" culture. This development was nominated for the "middenhuur" award, attributed for qualitative developments in the middle-expensive rent segment.
AMST
Demographic change and Dutch commercial real estate
Scarce labour more important in location choice
Clearly the relationship between demography and the demand for residential real estate is more immediate than for commercial real estate. Nevertheless, demographics also have profound impacts on commercial real estate. One striking example is the relationship between the expected shrinking of the workforce and its effect on locational choice by enterprises, which can be related to the rising ‘old age dependency ratio’ in the Netherlands. The significance of this is evident in the current economic context with unemployment below 4%, far below the average of the last 10 years. Employers are already aware of the size and suitability of potential workforces when choosing where to locate their businesses. Location preferences for office based employers will, naturally, also be influenced by several other factors, including accessibility, attractiveness of the local micro-area and availability of high quality office space. But the selection of a location will be increasingly influenced by where to find a suitable workforce in case the workforce grows scarcer. This especially applies in knowledge-intensive segments of the economy, where companies are faced with a far more constrained labour supply.
The maxim “demography is destiny” has sometimes been used, simplistically, to assume societies, economies and markets with positive population growth will be successful.
Obviously, this distorts the impacts of a complex driver of social and economic change. But analysing the components of population and migration shifts, provide an important basis for understanding future developments in real estate markets. And the preceding analysis highlights some of the significant demographic changes that await the Netherlands in the future. Navigating Demographic Shifts Ultimately, demographic developments occur at relatively sedate rates, but some more localised moves can surprise policy makers and investors alike. Furthermore, as populations age and their structures shift, this can give rise to shifts in intergenerational preferences. Consequently, real estate professionals need to assess demographic trends and forecasts and establish where, how and at what speed, their impacts are taking place. Companies, managers and investors that are sufficiently informed about the impacts of demography will be better positioned to identify and enter property markets and segments with potential, and ensuring they exit those offering more limited opportunities.
Consequently, real estate professionals need to assess demographic change and establish where, how and at what speed, its impacts are taking place continuously and diligently
The value of assessing demographic change
Sources
The local labour supply will also impact location choices for logistics warehouses. Numerous logistics services and e-commerce enterprises currently report labour scarcity as an increasing threat to their operations . Attracting labour could be even more problematic in future. The opposition towards logistics developments from Dutch political parties is partly linked to the added pressure on local housing markets created by the migration of labour when new warehouses are developed. . Therefore, the constraint on the logistics market in certain regions will not only be a lack of available space but limited local labour availability. A scarce labour force could reinforce urbanisation dynamics. Enterprises settling in urban locations due to their supply of labour, could provide more opportunities in cities, leading to further migration.
Mixed-use as the new magic formula
The growing influence of secular trends like e-commerce growth and remote working, places limits on the relationship between population growth and the demand for additional space in sectors like retail and office.
Younger generations tend to value convenience and walkability. They prefer to live in areas where they can easily access their workplaces, shopping, dining, entertainment, and other amenities without relying heavily on cars. Mixed-use developments often provide a range of services and activities within walking distance, aligning with these preferences.
Convenience and Walkability
Younger generations value community in a less traditional sense. Mixed-use developments encourage a sense of community by bringing together residential, commercial, and sometimes even cultural spaces in the same area. This promotes social engagement and facilitates interactions between residents and businesses.
Social Interaction
Millennials and Gen Z tend to value diverse experiences. Mixed-use developments offer a variety of activities, services, and cultural offerings in proximity, allowing residents to easily engage in different experiences without extensive travel.
Diverse Experiences
The consequence of these shifting preferences does not necessarily translate into an increase in the total sq. m of floor space required, but rather an increased demand for its proximity. This is reflected in the rising number of large, mixed-use properties which are being delivered or about to be delivered in larger cities. For example, several new developments on the South-Axis of Amsterdam incorporate a broad range of functions within a single building. New mixed-use developments in Utrecht are becoming more common as well, exemplified by Wonderwoods and Oopen, with the latter including offices, sports venues, a nightclub and a romantic viewpoint. Nevertheless, mixed-use developments remain a very urban phenomenon. They not only satisfy the preferences of new generations, but also allow different functions to operate in the same scarce, available space. Furthermore, mixed use buildings could offer investors a welcome spread of risk across different sectors of the economy, within a single property.
The Pulse entails 150 mid-rent homes, 3,000 sq. m of cinema space, 2,000 sq. m of catering, 350 sq. m of retail space and 36,000 sq. m of office space in addition to housing. This is the first tower in the South-Axis with all these functions in one building. Delivery is expected in 2024.
Describing itself as the ‘‘evolution of city life’, the Valley entails a total of 75,000 sq. m, divided among Residential-, Office-, Retail- and Recreational space. This building was delivered in 2021.
The towers with a total area of 81,000 m2 will have a diverse programme including rental and owner-occupied housing, offices, retail, hospitality, education, culture and a semi-public roof garden. Delivery is expected in 2024.
While these trends mitigating the effects of population growth, the growing influence of younger generations also appears to affect the demand for commercial real estate in other ways, due to their following preferences:
88 sq. m
Average for Dutch one-person households living space
53 sq. m
Average for all Dutch households
47 sq. m
Average for all German households
44 sq. m
Average for all UK households
DIGITAL DISRUPTION
navigating the boundary between the Digital and the Physical
Rapid technological developments will transform many of the sectors that form the backbone of the Dutch economy.
Some sectors like the financial sector, have already embraced technological changes, led by homegrown successes such as Mollie, Adyen and Bunq. However, not every sector is actively embracing advances, with those like the Commercial Real Estate Sector (CRE) are struggling to adapt to a rapidly shifting environment and are feeling the influence of digital disruption on their business models. Realigning Real Estate The digitalisation of the Dutch economy is not a new phenomenon. It has been influencing the evolution of most industries over the last 25 years. It has become all-pervasive, with digital technologies being embedded in our everyday lives. For instance, in 2002 only 34% of the working population needed an internet connection for their work. Twenty years later this percentage has increased to 81%1 . This development highlights how innovative technologies are not immediately adopted but need time to become integrated into a society.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
The speed at which businesses are being affected by advances in digitalisation is often compared to the industrial revolution of the early 1800s.
Some commentators are referring to current and future advances, and integration of disruptive technologies in businesses, as Industry 4.0 or the Fourth Industrial Revolution. According to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) language model GPT-3.5 (often referred to as ChatGPT), “Digital Disruption”: “refers to the rapid and significant changes that occur in industries, markets, or businesses when advanced digital technologies and innovative business models fundamentally alter traditional ways of doing things. This disruption can result in a complete transformation of industries and can lead to the creation of new products, services, or processes that revolutionise the market.” (OpenAI, August 2023) Whereas the CRE sector in the last 25 years had to deal with the way in which computers, the internet and (mechanical) automation transformed industries, referred to as the Third Industrial Revolution, in future even more advanced disruptive technologies are expected to alter the economic environment. There is a consensus that Industry 4.0 will revolve around the infusion of AI in business processes, and that it exists out of the Nine Pillars of disruptive technology (Erboz, 2017).
This section explores how digital disruption is beginning to affect the CRE sector. Firstly, it will elaborate upon digital disruption and highlights some (emerging) technologies that will change the CRE landscape. From there, it examines the real estate sectors that are mostly likely to be impacted, focusing on office, retail, and industrial. Finally, there is a discussion on how CRE businesses are beginning to reconsider their operating models, in response to the challenges posed by technological advances.
The real estate sector has already experienced the effects of technological advance. For instance, the growth and general adoption of the internet has altered the ways in which people live, work and shop, exemplified by the growth of e-commerce. According to the Dutch Statistics Bureau (2023), 64% of the Dutch population regularly purchased goods online in 2018. In 2022, this percentage increased to 74%. This has had a profound impact on the Dutch real estate market. Along with nearshoring, reshoring, and other distribution strategies, e-commerce has contributed to a 26% increase in the Dutch logistics real estate stock over this period. At the same time, the number of physical retail stores decreased by 4% from 87,020 in 2018 to 83,770 in 2022. A range of disruptive technologies related to Industry 4.0 which are still massively underutilised in the CRE sector. These new technologies are set to alter the office, retail, and industrial sector in future decades. The following sections discuss how the impacts of the rapid advance of digitalisation could impact different real estate sectors. The residential sector is discussed in the chapter on Demographic Disruption.
Connectivity Matters
The office as a virtual workspace: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dutch office landscape has changed under the pressure of changing occupier demands and Working from Home (WFH).
Savills’ best estimate is that utilisation rates of Dutch offices fluctuate between the 55% and 65%. This is in stark contrast to pre-COVID-19 utilisation rates, which stood close to 95%. In 2023, approximately 2.5 million people have an office job, which is around 25% of the total Dutch working population. The nature of employment of these office workers is expected to change under the influence of AI. More automation is expected in the business services, financial and CRE, sectors, and the way in which office buildings are valued and utilised is expected to change substantially. Transforming Office Spaces For investors and occupiers alike, the mantra “Location, Location, Location” is being modified to adapt to the realities of a fast evolving world. Proximity to sought after amenities, alone, will no longer guarantee high occupancy rates, future value, and returns on investment. Instead, Savills expects that future office buildings will be valued according to how they can generate useful insights for occupiers and investors and enable businesses to thrive through data connectivity, alongside their location. Location will remain pivotal, as workers still need to commute to enjoy the benefits of an office building and its surroundings. In future, workers will largely use the office for digital work. Buildings, therefore, need to provide additional benefits over working from home. Property owners can use disruptive technologies to provide for healthy and sustainable interiors superior to the home environment. Using the Internet of Things (IoT) would enable individual components of a building to communicate with each other to provide for an optimal working environment. Smart sensors in office desks can count occupancy rates and communicate this with other components of the building to adjust light, temperature, and internet connectivity to save electricity and increase the comfort of occupiers. This technology is not as futuristic as it might sound. Large companies such as Bosch and Siemens are already working on Smart Building Solutions that use AI, Cloud Computing and the IoT. Future-Proof Offices Space and proximity will, therefore, not be the only valuable features of the office building of the future. The prime office building will also have to be capable of handling the terabytes of data that are downloaded, uploaded, collected, stored, and analysed. Being online is, therefore, an essential feature of the office of the future. Internet connectivity through optic fibre, for instance, is essential. Savills expects that The Netherlands will stay important for office occupiers, because the country has relatively good internet connectivity. However, the country will need to maintain that competitive edge over its neighbours. Consequently, the National Government needs to prioritise investments in the newest technologies in internet connectivity. This would safeguard the country’s competitive advantage, while remaining attractive to international businesses.
The Rise of the Digital Shopping Experience
Physical stores will undoubtedly remain relevant. Consequently, there is enormous potential to combine digital services with physical outlets.
Businesses that can use disruptive technologies to offer customers digital and physical tailor-made experiences, will become the winners of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Increasingly, contemporary shopping starts with an online search query. Smart and intelligent utilisation of the data from these search queries can create a more personalised retail experience. For instance, data generated by social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok can be utilised to promote goods suited for individual customers with specific demographic characteristics. These customers can then be drawn to physical shops which support the digital shopping experience, by offering fully customisable Artificial Reality models of products and services and delivering on-demand products using, for example, 3D-printing techniques. Disruptive technologies will most likely redefine the Dutch retail landscape. Physical stores will remain important in offering retail experiences and creating brand identities. Joint research by the Thomas Moore University of Antwerp and the Municipality of Antwerp (2023) revealed that 39% of shoppers are visiting physical stores to try, evaluate, and experience a product. Physical stores are, thus, in a rapidly changing world, still important. Accordingly, Savills believes that retailers and property owners should adopt these new business models and disruptive technologies. After all, retailers will need to increasingly blend “the digital” and “the physical” to keep attracting (mostly Millennial and Gen-Z) consumers. Some of the store formats at the forefront of embracing disrupting technologies are illustrated below.
The retail landscape has changed significantly under the pressure of technological advances in the last decade. Although the number of physical retail outlets decreased marginally, the number of digital retail outlets increased by 266% between 2013 and 2023. Shopping has, thus, been greatly transformed, with digital retail outlets offering convenience, fast delivery, and often a broader inventory compared to physical shops.
shopping for an experience, or experiencing shopping?
266%
The number of digital retail outlets increased by 266% between 2013 and 2023
Finding Physical Space for Digital Assets
Efficient use of space in an inefficient physical environment
Disruptive technologies are poised to alter the way in which the Dutch economy functions, and manufacturing and industry need to follow suit. Alongside physical goods, as the world becomes more digital, data will be increasingly seen as a valuable commodity that can be exploited by the industrial sector. Therefore, data usage in the Dutch economy will continue expanding exponentially and will need adequate infrastructure and adequate datacentres to support growth. The demand for datacentres is set to grow, but this need for growth will coincide with severely increased competition for (re)development space in The Netherlands. Not only is space for new developments limited in the Netherlands, but construction of (large-scale) datacentres is politically sensitive. Over the years, the Gross Surface Area and Net Surface Area (the data floor) of datacentres has increased by 41% and 37% respectively in the period 2017-2023. At the same time, the number of datacentres has decreased by almost 14%, illustrating the growing professionalisation of the sector, with clustering and more efficient use of space.
Moving forward, as the use of cloud computing and AI become more embedded in everyday life, more datacentres will have to be developed for the Dutch economy to be competitive. However, there is large negative sentiment towards the development of datacentres. This is largely caused by the perception that datacentres use tremendous amounts of electricity and water and do not create employment. Negative sentiment peaked in 2022, when the public debate on datacentres led to the abandonment of the plan for Meta’s new datacentre in Zeewolde. Nonetheless, according to the Dutch Statistics Bureau (2023), 3.7% of the total electricity consumption is used by datacentres which is approximately 0.44% of the total energy usage. Thus, overall energy consumption is small, in relation to the likely beneficial impact datacentres will have on the Dutch economy in the future. Savills, therefore, sees a need for the development of datacentres, as this sector will remain economically valuable. Nonetheless, investors and developers alike have a responsibility to work on the negative sentiment surrounding the datacentre sector. Going forward, datacentre proponents will need to demonstrate that datacentres use primarily green electricity, are developed on brownfield sides, and are transparent in the expected contribution they make to local, regional, and national welfare, as part of an economically crucial discussion.
Changing Business Models
For the CRE sector to thrive during the Fourth Industrial Revolution, occupiers, developers, and investors alike will need an open mind and embrace disruptive technologies to stay relevant.
It is likely that disruptive technologies will affect every CRE sub-sector. At the same time, occupiers, developers, and investors alike can utilise disruptive technologies to optimise their own business by implementing AI, Cloud Computing and embracing technologies to stay ahead of their competition. Embracing Technological Disruption Savills foresees a substantial increase in the use of AI in site-selection and analysis of investment opportunities. Meanwhile, augmented reality (AR) and Digital Twins are expected to challenge current development and investment processes. AR, Digital Twins and AI can assist enormously in validating investment strategies and development opportunities as they allow for “on-the-go” adjustments, recalibrations and recalculations. CRE businesses will need to place data at the centre of their business models to remain relevant. Without adequate data collection, management and analysis capabilities, companies can quickly lose competitive advantages built up over decades, to businesses that adopt enhanced approaches to data exploitation.
is there a future for Commercial Real Estate?
AR, Digital Twins and AI can assist enormously in validating investment strategies and development opportunities as they allow for “on-the-go” adjustments, recalibrations and recalculations.
provides direct-to-consumer sale and subscription-based automotive ownership. The primary retail outlet is digital, but the brand has physical “clubs” where potential buyers can experience the brand.
Lynk & Co
originally did not have any physical retail outlets and solely provided their electronic wares online. The retailer currently has 14 shops in The Netherlands, where customers can get tailored advice, experience and purchase goods, and pick-up digitally ordered goods.
Coolblue
is not necessarily a retailer, but more of a concept which offers a unique experience. This shopping mall does not necessarily use many disruptive technologies. It, rather, is open to retailers using disruptive technologies and new business models. Retailers include Samsung, XPENG, and Polestar
The Westfield Mall of The Netherlands
Connectivity with the Digital Building
Connectivity to the Digital World
Connectivity to Physical Places
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy, 2023.
Future office buildings will be valued by their connectivity: Connectivity to the Digital World; Connectivity to Physical Places and the Connectivity with the rest of the Digital Building
The Nine Pillars of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Large, complex datasets that affect decision-making of businesses.
Big Data & Analytics
robots that solve complex tasks which cannot be solved by humans at the same time;
Autonomous Robots
human-machine interaction to alter reality to support business decisions;
Augmented Reality
virtual (mathematical) simulations of real-world products used to better analyse, understand, and improve products;
Simulations & Digital Twins
referred to as the “great enabler” of digitalisation in Industry 4.0. Computing is done “virtually”, which is safer, quicker, and more cost effective;
Cloud Computing
producing physical goods ‘on request’, such as 3D printing technology;
Additive Manufacturing
as AI becomes more common, threats to businesses become larger. Cybersecurity needs to adopt to keep businesses safe;
Cybersecurity
full digital integration of all aspects of a supply chain, from businesses to customers and suppliers.
Horizontal & Vertical System Integration
physical objects and systems are connected through the internet to allow for (uninterrupted) streamlining of processes;
Internet of Things (IoT)
Digital embeddedness in the Dutch Economy
Working Population which Requires an Internet Connection
Working Population which Works from Home once a Week
34%
2002
81%
2023
6%
64%
The number of physical retail stores decreased by 4% since 2018.
Dutch Data Center Association, 2023; Dutch Statistics Bureau, 2023; Erboz, 2017; Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy, 2023; Speedtest Global Index, 2023; Thomas Moore University Antwerpen & Municipality of Antwerpen, 2023
Shifting demographics, digitalisation and decarbonisation are creating new demands for real estate. The volatile weather that has dominated the summer holidays has been a perfect metaphor for Dutch real estate markets characterised by uncertainty.
Transactions have been the lowest in 10 years in both the investment and the occupier markets. The Dutch market will eventually emerge from the effects of the most overwhelming interest rate shock in decades. However, after the correction, the sector’s future will be shaped by forces that will leave it considerably different to the preceding 10 years. Realigning Real Estate Changing population structures, the unrelenting impacts of digital disruption and the demands of climate warming will have powerful impacts on society and the economy, as well as commercial real estate. A considerably older population, internal and international migration and inexorable urbanisation will be key determinants of real estate demand, alongside the housing preferences of different generations. The disruptive forces of digitalisation shaping society and the economy, will also influence the way that the real estate sector responds. The report described how the demands of meeting tougher building regulations linked to tackling climate change are affecting Dutch real estate. Indeed, the sector will play a pivotal role in addressing global warming because it is responsible for a significant share of CO2 emissions. Therefore, tighter European and Dutch regulations aimed at lowering emissions will impact the way investors perceive and manage risk and return expectations. However, these requirements will also raise the need for sustainable real estate and create new investment demand. Similarly, the regulatory responses of politicians and policy makers to the climate transition, migration, housing affordability and the growth in digitalisation, could have additional disruptive influences on Dutch real estate. Owners and occupiers will have to continually adapt to the ongoing challenges brought about by demographics, digital change and the demands of decarbonisation. Nevertheless, they will also be focused on exploiting the considerable opportunities that will be generated by their impacts.
The perfect metaphor for Dutch real estate markets: Uncertainty, like volatile weather, dominates. Transactions hit a 10-year low amid overwhelming interest rate shock.
Future Shifts Ahead
Savills Data, Intelligence & Strategy
Our independent Data, Intelligence & Strategy team solves all of your real estate issues. We work together with developers, investors, municipalities and occupiers and offer them high-quality, highly detailed customized analyses without losing sight of the strategic question.
Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
Raymond Frederiks
CONTACT
Market Intelligence Analyst +31 6 15 31 79 47 raymond.frederiks@savills.nl
Wouter van 't Grunewold
Market Intelligence Analyst +31 6 15 82 18 72 wouter.grunewold@savills.nl
Charlotte Harmsen
Head of Marketing & Business Intelligence +31 6 11 40 39 65 c.harmsen@savills.nl
Our advice is based on a solid combination of reliable data and in-depth market knowledge of the various market segments within the real estate market. In our analyses we focus on factors that influence the supply and demand of real estate. The product we deliver always depends on your wishes. We offer a wide variety; from a smart one-pager, an extensive research report to a tailor-made dashboard. Our product will support you in making well-founded property decisions.
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Shaun Stevens
Commercial Real Estate Trends Crossword Puzzle
Welcome to the Commercial Real Estate Trends Crossword Puzzle! Test your knowledge and discover key concepts and innovations shaping the world of commercial real estate. In this puzzle, we explore three significant trends: decarbonisation, demography, and disruption through technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). We hope you enjoy the crossword puzzle as you delve into the trends shaping the ever-evolving world of commercial real estate. Embrace the opportunity to expand your knowledge of sustainable practices, demographic shifts, and cutting-edge technologies influencing the industry. Feel free to share this puzzle with friends, colleagues, or fellow real estate enthusiasts. Happy solving!
We hope you enjoy the crossword puzzle as you delve into the trends shaping the ever-evolving world of commercial real estate. Embrace the opportunity to expand your knowledge of sustainable practices, demographic shifts, and cutting-edge technologies influencing the industry. Feel free to share this puzzle with friends, colleagues, or fellow real estate enthusiasts. Happy solving!
Enjoy the Challenge
Study the clues provided for each word. Fill in the crossword grid with words related to the given trends. Each word intersects with at least one other word. Use the given word list to help you find the correct answers.
Instructions
• • • •
Trends Featured
Decarbonisation: Explore terms associated with environmentally conscious practices, energy efficiency, and carbon-neutral approaches in commercial real estate. Demography: Discover words related to the study of population shifts, urbanization, and the impact of demographics on the real estate landscape. Disruption: Uncover terms linked to technological innovation, artificial intelligence, automation, and other disruptions shaping the future of commercial real estate.
• • •
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.
E-COMMERCE COWORKING RETAILAPOCALYPSE DISRUPTION FLEXIBLESPACES SUSTAINABILITY POPULATIONSHIFT ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE INDUSTRIALLOGISTICS AUTOMATION INNOVATION ENERGYEFFICIENCY GENTRIFICATION DEMOGRAPHICS REMOTEWORK MOBILEAPP COLLABORATION URBANIZATION CARBONNEUTRAL ONLINESHOPPING GREEN SMARTBUILDINGS TECHNOLOGY MIXEDUSE SHARINGECONOMY
2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 15. 19. 20. 22. 25.
Shared workspaces where individuals can work independently or collaboratively. Radical change or upheaval caused by technology like AI in the real estate industry. Spaces designed to adapt and accommodate various working arrangements. Shifts in the distribution and concentration of population in urban areas. Use of artificial intelligence to enhance real estate processes and decision-making. Working from a location other than the traditional office environment. Achieving a balance of zero carbon emissions. Buying products or services over the internet, impacting commercial spaces. Buildings that use technology to optimize energy efficiency and operations. Economic model based on shared access to goods and services in real estate.
Across
1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 21. 23. 24.
Buying and selling goods or services electronically, affecting commercial properties. Closure of numerous retail stores as a result of the growing online shopping trend. A focus on reducing carbon emissions and environmental impact. Focus on warehouses and distribution centers due to changes in retail and logistics. Use of machines and technology to perform tasks that were previously done by humans. Introduction of new ideas, methods, or technologies in real estate practices. Implementing methods to reduce energy consumption in buildings. Transformation of neighborhoods with an influx of wealthier residents. Study of the characteristics of human populations and their impact on real estate demand. Application on mobile devices that facilitates real estate activities and transactions. Encouraging people to work together and share ideas in real estate settings. Process of cities becoming more densely populated and expanding. Environmentally friendly or eco-conscious practices in commercial real estate. Application of scientific knowledge for practical purposes in the real estate sector. Development that combines residential, commercial, and/or industrial spaces.
Down
Step into the realm of possibility and join us on a journey into the not-so-distant future of Dutch real estate. As we cast our gaze just a decade ahead, we're met with a landscape shaped by three powerful trends: decarbonization, shifting demographics, and the ever-advancing wave of digital disruption. Together, these forces are poised to reshape the very foundations of how we live, work, and engage with our environment. Brace yourselves for a glimpse of what the next 10 years might hold—the harmonious convergence of innovation, sustainability, and human-centric evolution.
In the dawning era of 2033, Dutch real estate stands at the intersection of dreams and reality, where the lines between innovation, sustainability, and human-centered design blur into a harmonious symphony of progress. The headlines you've just encountered offer us a tantalizing glimpse of the path ahead—a path illuminated by the convergence of decarbonization, demographics, and digital disruption. As we venture into this future, may we approach it with awe, anticipation, and a shared commitment to forging spaces that not only meet our needs but exceed our wildest aspirations.
Before we delve further into this exciting vision of the future, let's acknowledge our own present actions. Every query and interaction with AI, including this one, comes with its own environmental impact. For instance, a typical ChatGPT query consumes an estimated 500ml of water, akin to the water use of massive data centers. In fact, a US-based Google Data Center already uses an astonishing 5 billion liters of water per year. Additionally, AI's carbon cost is not to be ignored. A single GPT-3 training run, emits approximately 626,155 lbs of CO2, which is equivalent to driving a car around the Earth's equator nearly 28 times. The choices we make in our technological journey shape our world—let's choose wisely for a sustainable tomorrow.
Disclaimer
Headlines from the Future: Dutch Real Estate in 2033
Amusing and slightly exaggerated newspaper headlines from the future, reflecting the impact of commercial real estate trends.
Eco-Friendly Warehouses Take the Lead: Dutch Logistics Sector Pioneers Sustainable Construction Practices
AI Real Estate Agents Outperform Human Agents; Now Demanding Coffee Breaks!
The Triad of Transformation: Dutch Real Estate Evolution Marries Sustainability, Demographics, and Digitalization.
Biophilic Bliss: Nature-Inspired Design Enhances Wellness in Commercial Spaces
Utrecht City Special
Amsterdam City Special
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demographic Disruption
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Many of the increases are associated with holdings that have been under-rented
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chapter Disruption
Puzzle
